One way or the other, mobile device access value and roles are likely to change in the 5G era. But since there already are conflicting and contradictory value drivers, it is not clear whether mobile network access drives more value, equal value or less value in the upcoming 5G era.
To summarize, the mobile network could well drive more value and usage. The argument: with unlimited plans, gigabit speeds, ultra-low latency and price plans that are competitive with fixed networks for the first time, customers will lose incentives to shift access to Wi-Fi, and might find themselves staying connected to the mobile network most of the time. That would be a huge shift from current behavior, where perhaps 80 percent to 90 percent of mobile device data usage happens “indoors.”
And, in recent years, in some markets, Wi-Fi likely represents 300 percent more connection volume than does mobile network access. In other words, Wi-Fi has been the main indoor access connection.
On the other hand, use of mobile networks and Wi-Fi offload might remain roughly the same, in consumer markets, because Wi-Fi has stronger signal indoors, and so will continue to represent value for indoor mobile use. The change is that "cost savings" might not be driver, but rather simple signal quality.
Some also believe there is a third possibility, and that is that, at least for large venues and enterprises, venues or third parties might build and operate new "indoor networks" that boost mobile signal strength inside buildings while providing better coverage on some campuses.
In that event, reliance on the "mobile" network might well increase, as Wi-Fi would not have the same signal strength value. On the other hand, that "mobile" network access could well be provided by the venue itself, third parties or mobile operators.
The point is that it is far from certain how all those changes will play out. In fact, some would predict that, in a 5G era where mobile access is price and speed competitive with fixed alternatives, many consumer users will start to rely on their mobile connections all the time, instead of shifting to Wi-Fi when indoors.
That could reverse recent trends, where Wi-Fi offload has been hugely significant. Nearly half of consumers surveyed about their connection choices suggest that with unlimited plans and 5G performance and price, they would simply stay on the 5G network all the time, as there would be no performance or cost advantage to shifting to Wi-Fi.
The point is that business models built on outdoor and indoor connectivity could change as 5G arrives. What is not so clear is precisely how matters change.
Mobile operators could reclaim some relevance as providers of “indoor” connectivity. Or not.
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