When Reliance Jio enters the Indian mobile market, it will do so offering voice and data services at about half--or possibly less than half--of current market tariffs. Some potential competitors believe it is possible voice services could be offered free.
In a market where voice services represent 80 percent of industry revenues, that would likely satisfy anybody’s definition of a disruptive attack.
In a market that nearly everyone agrees is "oversupplied," Reliance Jio's market entry is likely to be the catalyst that causes any number of smaller mobile providers to exit the market.
The impact on leading providers is less clear. In principle, Reliance Jio could take customers from virtually all the other providers. But since the top four providers serve 69 percent of all mobile users, it is likely that most of the share taken will come from the ranks of the leading four providers in the Indian market.
Reliance Jio will offer data and voice services at half or less than half the current rates at Rs. 300-500 a month, Ambani said in June 2015 at the Reliance Industries annual meeting.
Several of the leading providers are expected to launch promotions of their 3G services in an effort to blunt the coming Reliance Jio 4G offers.
Few would expect the price attack to last forever, however. A reasonable expectation is a year-long assault that reshapes market share, making Reliance the fourth-largest mobile service provider, and likely dooming a number of smaller firms to failure in the process.
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