Service provider 5G service revenues will reach $73 billion globally this year, while growing to $600 billion by 2026, analysts at Juniper Research predict. $73 billion in 5G revenues would represent about 8.5 percent of total mobile operator revenue in 2021, according to Juniper Research.
That is likely correct as far as it goes. The other important observation is that those 5G service revenues do not represent very much incremental revenue, as most of those subscriptions will be matched by a lost 4G, 3G or or 2G subscription.
It is possible, however, that sensor, server and other connections already are included in the Statista figures. That seems likely as it is unlikely either edge computing using 5G, or internet-of-things connections at the moment amount to more than a few billion dollars worth of revenue globally (for service providers).
Also, “service” revenue does not represent the full extent of mobile operator revenues, which include other notable revenue sources such as device sales.
Perhaps the more-important figures to track are incremental service revenues that do not represent a replacement of consumer or business user mobile phone subscriptions. Connected sensors, servers or other machines provide one example of possible incremental use case and revenue growth.
If one assumes an IoT market generating about $1.8 trillion worth of revenue in 2026, and if connectivity revenue is about 10 percent of that amount, then IoT service revenue could be a $180 billion market, representing as much as 12 percent (potentially) of total mobile operator revenues, if mobile operators had 100 percent share of the IoT device connectivity services market, which will not happen.
If mobile operators had 50 percent share of the IoT connectivity market, then the incremental revenue would be $90 billion, or about six percent of total revenues. That is significant, if not overwhelming.
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