Open radio access networks have faced some commercial skepticism from service providers that typically need “bulletproof” infrastructure and find current open RAN platforms incomplete, not fully vetted and tested.
Reduced cost and complexity are among the hoped-for advantages, but at least early on, integration costs and chores could be substantial, undermining the business cases. There is a cost to integrate hardware and software elements from many suppliers, while still achieving the same performance and time to market as an integrated, single-vendor network.
Also, at least some mobile operators have moved far enough down the path of deploying their 5G radio infrastructure, with need to get commercial fast, that switching to open RAN approaches mid-stride is not viewed as wise.
Perceptions are likely to change as the platforms achieve the necessary completeness, are stress tested and gain support even from legacy suppliers of radio infrastructure, ensuring that interoperability is not an issue.
Still, at the moment, only a couple of operators--Rakuten and Dish Network--have gone all in on open RAN. Some analysts think most open RAN deployments will be driven either by private 5G networks or small cell and indoor situations.
source: Ericsson, Analysys Mason
The reason for that thinking is that mobile service providers invest most of their radio capital investment in the outdoors coverage network, and the substantial portion of that capex will still use legacy approaches.
Private 5G network operators will be less concerned about multi-vendor radio interoperability, and will often be able to use open RAN, but all from one supplier. That eliminates issues caused by use of multiple suppliers on a single network.
For incumbent infrastructure suppliers, open RAN means potential loss of some market share to different or new suppliers. The converse is true for new suppliers, which expect to gain share from the incumbents.
source: Ericsson, Analysys Mason
And while cost savings are a key driver of open RAN, lower capex is not the only attraction.
source: Ericsson, Analysys Mason
Still, given time, such issues are likely to be resolved. So it might not be incorrect to argue that the flourishing of open RAN--when it is the standard way to deploy public networks, could happen with 6G networks, as the deployment issues will have been resolved by that time.
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