Travel behavior has had a significant impact on mobile revenues globally, primarily in the form of reduced roaming revenues, though some reduced upgrade or new account activity might also be an issue. By definition, a return to pre-pandemic travel is key to restoring roaming revenue volume.
Some believe full recovery to pre-pandemic levels will take a few years.
Global spending on business travel is expected to show a 52 percent decrease for all of 2020 (to $694 billion), down from $1.4 trillion in 2019, according to the Global Business Travel Association, an “unprecedented” decline.
“The magnitude of these losses and their impact on travel suppliers is unprecedented: the 2020 business travel spending losses are expected to be 10 times larger than the impact of either 9/11 or the Great Recession of 2008,” says GBTA.
More significantly, GBTA expects a 21-percent increase in business travel spending is projected in 2021, mostly at the end of 2021. A full recovery to pre-pandemic levels is not expected until 2025.
Consumer travel demand also matters. In that regard, one analysis suggests travel tops the list of things U.S. residents want to do after they get vaccinated, a survey by Ipsos finds. And there appears to be significant pent-up demand.
About 40 percent of respondents say they’re saving more now than they were before the pandemic, and most people who have plans for the money say they’re saving it for travel.
About 19 percent of survey respondents say they’re saving for a domestic trip by plane, while 16 percent say they’re saving for a domestic road trip. About 15 percent say they’re saving for an international trip.
So 2021 might still be a challenging year for mobile operators, in terms of revenue growth, as roaming revenues might remain depressed for most of the year.
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