If we have learned anything at all about consumer interest in buying broadband internet access, it is that compelling application experiences create the demand for access. 5G might well be different from 3G or 4G if the compelling new use cases arise in the business segments of the market, not the consumer markets.
So far, in business markets, fixed network substitution has been a minor use case for 4G. Many believe fixed wireless substitution will be a bigger use case in the 5G era, especially as millimeter wave access becomes more common.
It would be fair to note that expectations are high for internet of things (including vehicle apps, factory automation, smart cities) and edge computing use cases, for example, plus virtual networks.
Some might note that if all or most of the new use cases are for enterprise users, 5G might prove relatively unprofitable, since consumer revenues still account for the majority of mobile use cases and revenue. In that sense, it will be important that new consumer use cases and revenue are found.
Though faster access speeds have some value for consumer users, the big surge of consumer 5G uptake is likely to come for one of two reasons.
The first is that marketing plans offer value of some sort not directly dependent on 5G. In the U.S. market, 5G is available from some mobile operators as a feature of unlimited usage plans, for example.
Long term, compelling applications are likely to create the sustainable 5G demand. Anecdotally, I can remember the day 4G smartphones became truly useful. As a traveling worker, the ability to tether to 4G for using my PC was compelling.
As a mobile device, 4G became valuable when Google Maps offered “no additional fee” turn-by-turn navigation, obviating the need for a separate Garmin GPS device with an attached recurring subscription.
Later, Uber, Lyft and ridesharing added more value, building on Google Maps. For some consumers mobile entertainment video might have been the value driver, though not in my case.
On occasion, device demand also has changed because some new use case became compelling. Many business users could tell you they chose to use a Research in Motion BlackBerry in the 3G era because it offered the best mobile email experience.
Many of those same users might also tell you they switched away to other devices that provided a better web experience. That arguably was true both of moves away from BlackBerry and the Nokia Symbian operating system precisely because web browsing had become the crucial use case, not email access.
Application bundling will be tried in many markets, with differing chances of success. But bundled or not, app stores mean the key driver is compelling third party apps. And we likely do not yet know what those apps and use cases might turn out to be.
So far, I have not found any new killer app of the “turn-by-turn navigation” sort that suddenly makes the case for 5G drop dead simple.
And though it is a short-term issue, the work from home restrictions have effectively reduced my use of mobile data, roaming and the requirement for speed, as most of my mobile usage now is simply supplied by at-home Wi-Fi.
At least for the moment, unlimited mobile usage adds very little value, as none of the devices on my shared account use much mobile data. Access speed also matters little when out-of-home demand has been so much reduced. Nor does lower latency have any obvious compelling new value, for the same reasons. What works fine on at-home Wi-Fi--which is every app I actually use--is sufficient on a 4G network.
That is not to say new use cases are impossible or unlikely. Mobile email was among the important new use cases for 3G. Turn-by-turn directions were key for 4G. Something will happen in the 5G era, even if we cannot precisely say what the new value drivers will be.
That uncertainty has been true for fixed network use cases as well.
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