Many expect the U.S. C-band spectrum auction will result in about $47 billion in bids, with Verizon expected to spend most heavily, as it has the greatest need for additional spectrum. Verizon has the most customers but the least bandwidth of all three national networks, meaning Verizon’s networks are more highly loaded than its competitors, in terms of potential bandwidth per customer.
After 33 rounds of bidding, a total of about $34 billion already has been offered for the 280 MHz of prime mid-band spectrum favored for 5G because it is a good compromise of coverage and capacity features.
Also, the new 280 MHz of capacity boosts total U.S. low-band and mid-band mobile spectrum by nearly 50 percent. It is consequential.
Some might argue it is possible total bids will be higher than $47 billion. Analyst Sasha Javid tracks FCC auction prices closely. His analysis of price trends after 33 rounds (C-band auction is the orange line) suggests demand has been stronger in the early going than in past auctions.
Some might argue that if that demand curve remains higher for longer, prices will rise. Bidding for “A block” licenses that will be cleared earliest suggests bidders value the ability to put that spectrum to work earliest. It is possible that B block and C block licenses will not be cleared until perhaps 2023.
If so, prices for A block licenses should be higher than for B and C allocations, all other things being equal.
Bloomberg reporters Scott Moritz and Todd Shields suggest that Verizon will wind up spending about $20 billion; AT&T about $9 billion, with lesser amounts committed by T-Mobile ($6 billion).
Dish Network might bid $3 billion, while Comcast and Charter, bidding in a consortium, might be willing to spend $5 billion.
As this analysis by S&P Global shows, T-Mobile has, by far, the greatest present trove of mid-band spectrum.
source: S&P Global
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