Tuesday, December 15, 2020

South Korea and the 5G "Race"


Many seem to believe 5G is a "race" to see who can deploy it first. That never makes sense to me. Countries do not compete against each other based on the qualities of their mobile networks but on a range of other advantages or disadvantages. 

Ultimately, every country uses every generation of mobile technology. Some adopt faster; some slower. But overall advantages and disadvantages--economic, social, educational, technological--are fundamental. Use of mobile technology is only derivative. 

5G is more nearly a "race" between rival mobile service providers within a single country, who can gain or lose market share, customers, revenue and profit if they lag. 

For infrastructure suppliers, 5G is a race in the sense that market share always is an issue for contestants in any industry. Whether "leadership" in infrastructure supply is important is a matter of debate. 

In the internet era, some countries, firms and regions "lead" globally. So 5G arguably falls into the framework of leadership in other areas deemed to be important economically. Still, in and of itself, the availability of 5G might not matter very much in the near term.

The belief often seems to be that, longer term, early adopters are able to establish compelling new use cases and value, and reap the economic advantages of those use cases. That seems largely misplaced. 

It is not clear that the ability to use personal computers and PC apps has had decisive advantage, in and of itself. It is more nearly the case that economies and nations that were, for other reasons, able to innovate in the internet era. 

Some argue it is "experience" that matters for customers. Others might say "applications" are what matters. Yet others might say it is the value that can be created from 5G that ultimately matters (economic growth, for example). 

To be sure, 5G winners and losers will emerge. But winning countries are likely to be those who were winning for other reasons, though winning mobile operators will gain market share against rivals who are slow to adopt, in countries where consumers see compelling value. 




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