Monday, June 24, 2019

Why 5G Connectivity Revenue Forecasts Do Not Mean Very Much

Not everything we can quantify has significant meaning. Consider forecasts of 5G service revenue. We have seen, and will see, more forecasts of 5G connectivity revenue. In the consumer markets, there will be almost a one-for-one decrease in 4G revenue as the 5G service is adopted.

In other words, 5G mostly will be a substitute for 4G.

Since most adults now use mobile phones and therefore have mobile service, there are relatively few new accounts to be gained.

So 5G, as the immediate next-generation network, will displace existing connections and accounts, for the most part. Incremental new revenue is mostly going to come from new use cases, such as connected car or internet-of-things services.


So 5G adoption rates do matter, especially to the extent adoption is correlated with relatively-ubiquitous network presence, making the business case easier for new use cases built specifically on 5G capabilities.

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