Though the notion often gets downplayed by those with the most to lose, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that mobile and wireless networks of all sorts (mobile, satellite, fixed wireless, Wi-Fi, low-power wide area) are substitutes for legacy access methods and enablers of replacement applications and services, including consumer voice, consumer internet access and now entertainment video.
That raises some clear strategic and business issues: how much does any given provider want to spend, can they spend, should they spend on fixed network investments? What is the expected financial return?
The trend is most advanced in the voice area, where global fixed network voice subscriptions have been falling since 2003 or, globally, and seem to have peaked in the U.S. market about 2000.
The percentage of homes that are mobile-only for internet access might not be that unusual a pattern in many developing countries. It now also is a growing trend in developed countries as well. According to Telsyte, around 15 percent of Australian households (1.4 million households) are currently mobile only for all of their communications.
That seems to be part of a pattern of substitution we have seen before. Most households in in many countries are mobile-only for voice. And a growing percentage of homes might shift to mobile-only for video entertainment or perhaps internet-only for video on fixed networks.
About 41 percent of Australians aged 16 to 34 are interested in subscribing to 5G fixed wireless
Services that would increase the number of people using wireless as their only communications connection (some might use mobile only, others might use mobile and fixed wireless).
Even in the 4G era, 15 percent to 20 percent of U.S. households have become mobile-only for internet access, while in Canada perhaps 20 percent of households already rely exclusively on mobile networks for internet access. In some instances, as with younger, single-person households and lower-income households, reliance on mobile-only internet access is 10 percentage points to as much as 15 percentage points higher than that.
Figures from the CTIA agree with those estimates. Such mobile substitution for internet access already represents as much as 20 percent of U.S. households, says the CTIA. In some segments, such mobile substitution might be higher, as much as 35 percent, by CTIA estimates.
Some 53 percent of U.S. households also use mobile exclusively for voice access.
Households in rural areas also are more likely to rely on mobile networks for their internet access requirements as well.
Single-person households and households with younger consumers also are more likely to be mobile only for internet access.
Less than a tenth of people in France and the UK were mobile only, but in Turkey the figure was more than three times higher, according to Deloitte.
In Latin America, for example, Deloitte Brazil believes that over a third of all homes in Brazil were mobile data only. And in China, a fifth of the online user base (rather than households) were mobile-only as of 2016.
In Tokyo, where fiber optic connections are widely available, hundreds of thousands of homes (or about five percent) are relying on only mobile in 2017.
In Latin America, Deloitte Brazil believes that over a third of all homes in Brazil were mobile data only.
The proportion of U.S. broadband-only households (those who don’t have pay TV) rose to 31 percent in 2018—a compound annual growth rate of 13 percent over four years.1 More than a third of these households include millennials, and about half have an annual income below $50,000. Yet, when it comes to paid streaming, they subscribe to more services than bundled households.
The rapid rise of streaming video services has helped fuel the growth of broadband-only households. About 80 percent of these households subscribe to a streaming video service—much higher than the average across all US households.3This trend, combined with their preference for original content, appears to be moving these consumers away from traditional pay-TV bundles.
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