How Hard a Sell Will 5G Be?

How hard--or easy--will it be to sell smartphone 5G to consumers? Some now believe it might be harder than it was to sell 4G to 3G customers. Maybe not, others might argue. When 4G launched, it offered real-world speed improvement over 3G of at least 50 percent, and in some cases as much as an order of magnitude.

The differences between LTE Advanced (4G+) and early 5G might be as much as an order of magnitude again. But the issue is how much user experience advantage a smartphone user gets from that increase.

Many users will recall that 4G provided a much-better experience than did 3G, both for browsing speed and video apps. It is not so clear that 5G will provide such clear advantages over advanced 4G, though.

Generation	Icon	Technology	Maximum Download Speed	Typical Download Speed
2G	G	GPRS	0.1 Mbps	<0 .1="" font="" mbps="">
	E	EDGE	0.3 Mbps	0.1 Mbps
3G	3G	3G (Basic)	0.3 Mbps	0.1 Mbps
	H	HSPA	7.2 Mbps	1.5 Mbps
	H+	HSPA+	21 Mbps	4 Mbps
	H+	DC-HSPA+	42 Mbps	8 Mbps
4G	4G	LTE Category 4	150 Mbps	12-15 Mbps
4G+	4G+	LTE-Advanced Cat6	300 Mbps	24-30 Mbps
	4G+	LTE-Advanced Cat9	450 Mbps	60 Mbps
	4G+	LTE-Advanced Cat12	600 Mbps	?
	4G+	LTE-Advanced Cat16	979 Mbps	?
5G	5G	5G	1,000-10,000 Mbps (1-10Gbit/s)	?

source: Kenstechtips.com

A study by Strategy Analytics suggests consumers need better understanding of 5G benefits. But that might not be much of a problem, at least in terms of stats. The issue really is user experience benefits, which really might be harder to show.

The study found that consumers express “strong interest in 5G overall once the benefits and use cases are explained to them.” Other use cases of highest interest are those that improve safety or address current pain-points such as the ability to get connection in congested areas or in fast-moving vehicles, Strategy Analytics says.

The big wild card, though, is not 5G for smartphones, but 5G to replace fixed internet access services, a promise or threat some find unconvincing.

The Strategy Analytics study suggests “consumers are particularly interested in 5G to replace their fixed home broadband as long as it can deliver the anticipated improvement in speed over 4G, but only if it is reliable and cheaper.”

It will not be hard for 5G speeds to show dramatic improvement over 4G, even when smartphone based, and not using a fixed wireless substitute. The issue, as always, will come down to tariffs and usage allowances, as well as the number of expected users within any single household.

Will some significant percentage of consumers decide that 5G offers enough bandwidth, affordably enough, to allow substituting it for the existing fixed internet access connection. Price it closely enough, with enough usage allowance increases, and some are going to consider substitution seriously.

As always, single-user households will likely provide the easiest migration models. Multi-user households with children will likely prove toughest.