Monday, October 29, 2018

Use of Millimeter Spectrum Will Be Essential by 2022

Though much depends on what happens with the proposed T-Mobile US merger with Sprint, it is likely that the leading U.S. mobile service providers will require millimeter wave spectrum by about 2022, as they will no longer be able to supply capacity demand using only assets below 6 GHz.

In other words, the traditional low band and new mid-band spectrum (3.5 GHz, 5 GHz) will not be sufficient (presumably including offload to Wi-Fi, and assuming spectrum aggregation is used) to support operations.


source: Mobile Experts

A shift of video consumption to mobile, and away from fixed networks, is a prime driver of demand. "From our perspective, mobile is winning, and cable is losing," said Joe Madden, Mobile Experts principal analyst. In a broad sense, all linear services are losing share.

And the losses are both to streaming alternatives and “mobile streaming” alternatives.

"In the US market, the transition has already begun. T-Mobile offers unlimited Netflix over their network. AT&T is launching a direct-to-consumer streaming service for HBO and other Time Warner content.

Cable companies are losing TV customers quickly, but will soon begin to lose internet customers as well; the market is being forced to adapt or fall apart."

But there also are two elements to this potential shift: fixed network providers losing some market share in internet access to 5G networks (fixed and mobile modes) and linear service providers losing some account share to mobile versions.

To be sure, spectrum supply is growing, along with demand. South Korea recently auctioned 280 MHz of the 3.5 GHz band and about 10 times that amount in the 28 GHz band.

In the United States, the Federal Communications Commission will auction spectrum in the 24-GHz to 47-GHz bands, in addition to 3.5 GHz CBRS band and the 3.7-GHz to 4.2-GHz band.

Many countries are auctioning 3.5-GHz spectrum. Such moves create more spectrum abundance in some countries, especially when spectrum aggregation and use of unlicensed spectrum or shared spectrum are considered.

Traditionally, a shift to smaller cell sizes (cell division) has been one of the two primary tools for growing capacity, in addition to getting more spectrum. Through 1995, smaller cells were the more important means of creating usable capacity.

Use of small cells will increase dramatically in the 5G and millimeter wave eras, beyond greater use of small cells to support 4G networks.


source: Frank Rayal

After 1995, additional new spectrum has become more important. Still, smaller cells have yielded the great bulk of the usable capacity increases.


source: Science Direct

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