Wait for Full 5G or Jump Ahead Now?

Standards always are contentious, as any new standard--no matter how valuable--offers potential gain for some; losses for others. That seems to be the case for 5G NR decisions, where calls to “slow down and get it right” are opposed by other participants who are moving faster and need some stability now to deploy platforms.

That is not to deny either of the technology viewpoints, only to note that pre-5G deployment speed leads, in large part, to the difference in perspective. Some service providers, clearly seeing enhanced mobile broadband as a big opportunity with scale implications, do not mind moving fast, and now, to grow those markets. Others, with reasons for more-deliberate strategies, emphasize the elements of 5G standards that speak to new potential markets.

It is worth noting that participants also vary on the strategic value of 4G, compared to 5G. In some markets, it is logical to emphasize reaping the value of 4G (amortizing the investment) before moving too fast to 5G (and postponing for some time the next round of capital investment).

It is rational to argue that 4G platform capabilities are going to increase, offering many of the multi-gigabit speeds and lower latency performance that will define 5G, enabling innovations for human and machine users, as well as fixed wireless.

That latter point is important. In many markets, there is no substantial new fixed wireless opportunity to pursue. In many markets, mobility remains the key revenue opportunity, as demand for fixed access is relatively limited. In other markets, enough capable fixed network infrastructure exists to foreclose a big fixed wireless opportunity.

In yet other cases, current upgrade plans already are in motion, emphasizing fiber to the premises.

Separately, full 5G standards will include some elements of network functions virtualization that some carriers have deployed faster than others. Again, a difference in business perspective exists. Some might want to maximize the NFV positions they already have deployed, and gain a year or two advantage, compared to waiting for full standards.

Some might want to wait for full network virtualization standards to support end-to-end network slicing, to support different quality of service (QoS) and quality of experience (QoE) requirements (bandwidth, latency, and reliability) on a single physical network.

Again, there are business implications. Full 5G is going to do a better job where it comes to use cases not involving humans. Arguably, it will be easier to create virtual private networks with business models based on granular bandwidth, QoS and value-added services.

But some suppliers will see an chance to take advantage of some of those opportunities already, without waiting for full 5G standards.