By 2022, narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) connections based on use of Long Term Evolution 4G networks “will likely capture over 90 percent of the LPWAN connections globally, trouncing rival standards Sigfox and LoRaWAN on the strength of its wider coverage and reliability,” say researchers at Lux Research.
Suppliers of rival specialized IoT networks such as SigFox and LoRaWAN will vigorously disagree, largely because they believe NB-IoT retail costs will be too high.
History suggests it never is safe to assume tier-one carriers cannot price services at much lower rates than they do at present, or have done traditionally, especially later in a network generation’s life cycle, when investments already have been largely amortized. At that point, marginal cost pricing will allow prices for new connections to be set at lower prices than for the first connections when the network originally was commercialized.
Most believe that wireless networks have to be optimized to support long battery life and low cost. But Lux Research believes NB-IoT will be able to do so.
"While Sigfox is generating the most buzz today, it's likely to be displaced by NB-IoT in the coming years," said Tiffany Huang, Lux Research analyst.
To be sure, “LoRaWAN has niche use cases,” Lux Research believes. “It is the only system with built-in GPS-like technology and can be used to build shared community networks.”
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