Mobile Business Shifts to Internet Access in Southeast Asia

source: Ericsson

Mobile adoption actually is not a major problem for continental Southeast Asia, where mobile take rates exceed 128 percent of the population in 2015. For that reason, subscription growth will be relatively slow, at a compound annual growth rate of 2.4 percent from 2015 to 2020, pushing the penetration rate to 139 percent by 2020, according to Pyramid Research.

So even if there are vast differences between rural and urban markets in different regions, one theme is clear: mobile Internet access is the growth engine.

Pyramid Research predicts that adoption of 4G Long Term Evolution services will grow at a 54 percent CAGR through 2020.

Separately, Ericsson has estimated mobile subscriptions in Southeast Asia and Oceania exceeded one billion by the end of 2015, representing approximately 14 percent of global mobile subscriptions.

Between 2015 and 2021, mobile subscriptions are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of four percent in the region, reaching around 1.3 billion subscriptions by the end of 2021.

Total smartphone subscriptions in Southeast Asia and Oceania are expected to reach 350 million by the end of 2015. By the end of 2021, smartphone subscriptions are forecast to reach 850 million, a CAGR of 15 percent.

The vast majority of subscriptions will be for 3G or 4G services by 2020. Overall, 3G will make up 71 percent of all subscriptions, 4G will support 17 percent and 2G subscriptions are 12 percent of total, according to Ericsson.

Juniper pegs mobile Internet access accounts at 142 million at the end of 2015.

Mobile Internet access accounts will grow at a 14.3 percent CAGR to 292 million in 2020, driven mainly by smartphone adoption and 3G and 4G network expansion.

Juniper Research expects combined 3G and 4G subscriptions to make up 88 percent of the regional total by 2020.

As revenue from voice declines, operators are turning to multiple service pricing and positioning strategies to drive data adoption and usage, including OTT partnerships, discounting of bulk data, bundling and smartphone promotions.

source: Ericsson