"All of the Above" Works Best for New Millimeter Wave Spectrum, Facebook Argues

Connecting the unconnected requires a “pro-connectivity spectrum policy,” says Facebook, in a filing to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission about allocating spectrum above 24 GHz for mobile, satellite and fixed wireless applications.

That has three key elements, Facebook argues. “First, it should make the most of our finite spectrum by making it available to a variety of users and platforms—including mobile,” Facebook says.

“Second, it should support the balance between licensed and unlicensed spectrum,” Facebook adds.

Third, a “use it or share it” framework should be used, to encourage deployment of all authorized capacity.

Supporting the release of new spectrum, Facebook also emphasizes its support for spectrum sharing mechanisms. “Facebook supports the Commission’s proposals in this Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to make the 28 GHz, 37 GHz, and 39 GHz bands available for mobile use while also promoting sharing among a variety of users and platforms,” the company says.

Facebook also says it supports the Commission’s proposal to authorize unlicensed operation in 64 GHZ to 71 GHz band under its Part 15 rules.

Altogether, Facebook supports licensing of new spectrum for mobile, satellite and fixed wireless operations, plus sharing of licensed spectrum and deployment of huge amounts of license-exempt spectrum.

“In general, pro-connectivity spectrum policy must support the right balance between licensed and unlicensed spectrum,” Facebook argues.

Google Wants to Test Millimeter Wave Internet Access from the Sky

Google has asked the U.S. Federal Communications Commission for permission to test airborne and terrestrial transmitters in the 71 GHz to 76 GHz and 81 GHz to 86 GHz bands (the E-band).

In addtion to Google’s effort to commercialize balloon-based Internet access, even across the United States, the tests would be part of Google's effort to prepare for use of millimeter wave frequencies to support Internet access by unmanned aerial vehicles.

Google’s proposed terrestrial operations comply with the technical standards set forth in the FCC’s Part 101 rules for fixed microwave services, Google says. But Google says its terrestrial antennas will be pointed upward.

Google also is testing use of unmanned aerial vehicles to support Internet access, as Facebook is doing as well. In its tests of UAVs, Google is said to be experimenting with millimeter-wave frequencies now seen as the next frontier for fifth generation mobile networks.

The disadvantage: signal propagation constraints will require fancy signal processing and beam-forming antennas. The advantage: huge amounts of delivered bandwidth, perhaps 40 times greater than what is possible with 4G networks.

Bangladesh Gets New "Number Two" Mobile Operator

Many would argue that six leading mobile operators in any market is not a sustainable and stable market structure. Many also would argue that a monopoly is unappetizing, and an oligopoly (two providers, for example) equally bad for innovation and consumer welfare.

The global issue is what number of providers tends to promote both long-term innovation, consumer welfare and investment. Some believe the number is “three.” Other, including many regulators, believe “four” is the right number.

Technology changes (Wi-Fi as a major enabler) and competitive market dynamics (especially entry by new providers from “outside” telecom) might complicate the analysis.

New options--such as using a hybrid platform (Wi-Fi first)--will allow a wider range of providers to try and carve out niches in existing markets or possibly even create new markets.

source: Green Watch

Some existing or would-be mobile service providers believe content, and a content-focused mobile strategy, could create sustainable new businesses.

But the bottom line, in many markets, is simply that there are too many providers to allow sustainable investment, as profits are too low. That, in turn, leads to mergers that reduce the number of leading providers.

Axiata Group Berhad (Axiata) and Bharti Airtel will merge their telecom operations in Bangladesh, creating a new mobile operation with 40 million customers and number-two market share in the market, trailing only Grameenphone.

Upon completion, Axiata will hold 68.3 per cent controlling stake in the combined entity, while Bharti will hold 25 per cent. The remaining 6.7 per cent will be held by the existing shareholder, NTT Docomo of Japan.

The proposed transaction is subject to conditions precedent including receiving applicable approvals from relevant authorities and is expected to complete in the first half of 2016, according to a statement from Bharti Airtel.

Airtel Bangladesh has a subscriber base of nine million while Robi Axiata has 28 million subscribers.

Robi Axiata is currently the third largest telecom operator in Bangladesh, followed by Airtel. There had been six operators in Bangladesh. There will be five, after the merger.

Starry Will Try to Leverage Millimeter Wave Fixed Wireless for Internet Access

To paraphrase a quip, “fixed wireless is the network platform of the future, and always will be.” In the 1980s, fixed wireless was seen as the way to create competition for cable TV companies. Long story made short, it did not work out that way.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, fixed wireless was supposed to be the way data and voice specialists would compete against telcos in the small and mid-sized business market. It never happened on a widespread scale.

More recently, former fixed wireless spectrum was supposed to create new competition in the Internet access business. Clearwire tried, and then essentially abandoned the effort.

Now that spectrum is supposed to underpin some significant portion of the mobile business. We shall see.

Now Starry, a fixed wireless Internet access service, is among the latest examples of thinking that fixed wireless can bring major new competition to the Internet access business.

Starry plans to use non-line-of-sight millimeter wave technology to deliver the service. Neither of those concepts is new. Proponents have touted it for at least two decades.

Launching soon in Boston, we will see whether Starry has any more luck than any of its predecessors.

Sprint Claims Fastest LTE Network

Sprint has doubled its number of Long Term Evolution Plus markets (wider channels and therefore higher potential speeds).

Spring also says an analysis of new mobile performance data from Nielsen shows that Sprint’s LTE Plus Network beats Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile by delivering the fastest LTE download speeds.

The Sprint LTE Plus Network covers more than 150 markets, supplying speeds in excess of 100Mbps on capable devices.

Other tests suggest T-Mobile US has the fastest LTE network. It all depends on where one tests.

source: Sprint

South Korean Govt. Pondering 4th Mobile Carrier

South Korea's ICT ministry soon will determine whether to license the country's fourth mobile carrier, from among three firms: Sejong Telecom Co., K Mobile and Quantum Mobile, Yonap News Agency reports.  

The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning, which oversees the country's communications policy, wants to encourage more competition, especially on the budget end of the market.

Sejong Telecom Co. is currently a mobile virtual network operator.

The ministry says it is possible none of the contestants will get an operating license, if their business plans and financing are deemed inadequate.

If approved, the fourth mobile carrier could begin service in 2017.

SK Telecom currently has 50 percent market share, KT has 30 percent and LG Uplus has 20 percent.

Market structure  in Japan is roughly similar as well. While there are four leading operators, there are only three owners: NTT, KDDI and SoftBank.

Rank	Operator	Subscribers (in millions)	Ownership	Market Share
1	NTT docomo	61.623 (June 2013)	NTT (67%) State-owned (33%)	43%
2	au	38.378 (June 2013)	KDDI (100%)	27%
3	SoftBank	33.290 (June 2013)	SoftBank (100%)	23%
4	Y!Mobile (formerly eAccess)	10.4343 ](Q4 2013)	SoftBank (99.68%)	7%

Rank	Operator	Market Share
1	SK Telecom	50%
2	KT	30%
3	LG Uplus	20

Within 3 Years, Mobile Will Represent 80% of All Internet Subscriptions

It is hard to ignore the role now played by mobile and untethered access to the Internet, especially Wi-Fi.

Notably, Wi-Fi has become a crucial access mechanism for Internet access, even for mobile network users.

Beyond that, mobility is the normal and typical way most human beings get Internet access. The number of mobile broadband subscribers around the world surpassed that of fixed broadband at the end of 2010.  

In 2015, there were about 3.1 billion mobile broadband subscribers compared to 848 million fixed broadband subscribers.

source: Brookings

Within perhaps three years, mobile broadband will compose about 80 percent of total broadband subscriptions and become the dominant means of Internet connectivity.  

In emerging markets, mobile broadband is expected to increase from 37 to 79 percent of all broadband subscriptions between 2010 and 2015.

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https://www.internetsociety.org/sites/default/files/Global_Internet_Report_2014.pdf

How Much Spectrum Sharing in 5.8 GHz to 5.9 GHz Band?

Spectrum allocation is an inherently-political process, as it is zero sum game, with winners and losers. So it is that decisions about how to use the 75 MHz of spectrum at the top of the U-NII-4 band (from 5850 to 5925 MHz), now allocated on  a primary basis for Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), also has supporters of Wi-Fi access in that frequency contesting the primacy of vehicle communications.

The Federal Communications Commission is considering allowing shared use of some portion of the UNII-4 band for Wi-Fi.

The larger issue, New America Foundation suggests, is the use of spectrum sharing, rather than creation of another silo of spectrum, to promote more efficient use of the spectrum.

The issue is how much sharing, over what portions of the spectrum, should be allowed.

source: New America Foundation

Reliance Jio Will Get 23% Mobile Internet Share by About 2020, Morgan Stanley Predicts

Reliance Jio Infocomm will generate annual revenue of $6.69 billion (Rs 45,492 crore) by the end of its fourth year of commercial operations and grab 23 percent of India's non-voice mobile market share, Morgan Stanley predicts.

Reliance Jio will generate $1.7 billion of revenue by the end of the 2016 to 2017 business year.

Indonesia Mobile Should Consolidate from 10 to 4, Minister Says

“Use it or lose it,” Indonesian mobile operators essentially have been told by Rudiantara Rudiantara, Indonesia Minister of Communications and Information Technology.

The concern is that, of the 10 licenses issued, not all licensees are actively building facilities to launch service.

"Each permit has requirements for the operator to invest and to build, so if they don’t build anything, I can revoke their permit," said Rudiantara,

The minister also urges the industry to consolidate.

Indonesia should have a maximum of four mobile operators by the time the minister’s term ends in 2019 and smaller players should either merge or exit the industry, said Rudiantara.

The suggestion to consolidate to four national providers reflects nearly-universal belief among mobile industry regulators that three to four mobile operators are optimal for competition and sustainability.

Google Activates First Public Hotspot in Mumbai Train Station

Google has activated the first of 100 Wi-Fi hotspots at Indian Railways stations in India. Service is offered free for the moment, although a sustainable revenue model will be developed over time.

Up to 400 stations will get public hotspot capability, according to plan.

Mobile Business Shifts to Internet Access in Southeast Asia

source: Ericsson

Mobile adoption actually is not a major problem for continental Southeast Asia, where mobile take rates exceed 128 percent of the population in 2015. For that reason, subscription growth will be relatively slow, at a compound annual growth rate of 2.4 percent from 2015 to 2020, pushing the penetration rate to 139 percent by 2020, according to Pyramid Research.

So even if there are vast differences between rural and urban markets in different regions, one theme is clear: mobile Internet access is the growth engine.

Pyramid Research predicts that adoption of 4G Long Term Evolution services will grow at a 54 percent CAGR through 2020.

Separately, Ericsson has estimated mobile subscriptions in Southeast Asia and Oceania exceeded one billion by the end of 2015, representing approximately 14 percent of global mobile subscriptions.

Between 2015 and 2021, mobile subscriptions are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of four percent in the region, reaching around 1.3 billion subscriptions by the end of 2021.

Total smartphone subscriptions in Southeast Asia and Oceania are expected to reach 350 million by the end of 2015. By the end of 2021, smartphone subscriptions are forecast to reach 850 million, a CAGR of 15 percent.

The vast majority of subscriptions will be for 3G or 4G services by 2020. Overall, 3G will make up 71 percent of all subscriptions, 4G will support 17 percent and 2G subscriptions are 12 percent of total, according to Ericsson.

Juniper pegs mobile Internet access accounts at 142 million at the end of 2015.

Mobile Internet access accounts will grow at a 14.3 percent CAGR to 292 million in 2020, driven mainly by smartphone adoption and 3G and 4G network expansion.

Juniper Research expects combined 3G and 4G subscriptions to make up 88 percent of the regional total by 2020.

As revenue from voice declines, operators are turning to multiple service pricing and positioning strategies to drive data adoption and usage, including OTT partnerships, discounting of bulk data, bundling and smartphone promotions.

source: Ericsson

Verizon Intends to be First with 5G in U.S. Market

Verizon intends to lead th deployment of fifth generation networks in the United States, a stance completely consistent with its fundamental market positioning, company culture and past behavior.

“Leadership in 5G technology is another strategy to extend our premier network position,” said Fran Shammo, Verizon CFO. “We will be the first company to roll 5G out in the United States.”

“Entering 2016, we are confident in our three-tier strategy,” said Fran Shammo, Verizon CFO. That strategy builds on “leading at the network connectivity level,” as well as “developing new business models for video and Internet of Things.

Finally, there are incremental monetization efforts. But Verizon builds on network strategy, while developing big new business models.

“We remain committed to consistently investing in our networks for the future,” said Shammo.

Some might make a caveat, however. Verizon will invest when there is a return. The first tier one provider to make a commitment to fiber to home technology, Verizon now obviously questions the payback model, which explains its halt on FiOS extension to every market.

Expect AT&T to behave consistent with its own strategy as well, which is to be a fast follower. AT&T did that with 4G and some of us expect the same approach to 5G.

Spectrum Sharing Now Takes Several Forms

Though many of the policy and regulatory issues must be sorted through, the principle of spectrum and resource sharing in the access network continues to gain ground. Sharing of licensed government spectrum with commercial operators is one expression of the trend.

Dynamic access to spectrum represents another trend. Mobile access to Wi-Fi is a third example. 

In the past, some serivce providers also have agreed to share their respective spectrum, much as they sometimes share tower or radio assets.

Other methods of combining fixed and mobile access also are developing.

Swisscom, for example, is testing the bonding LTE and DSL. In its present tests, Swisscom passes mobile data to the DSL router, which combines the mobile and fixed-line data streams to boost speed.

In pilot trials, speeds of 20 Mbps have been demonstrated, and bandwidth is expected to grow in additional tests.

20 Gbps Per Device, 1 ms Latency for Mobile Access Requires Big Channels

As the U.S. Federal Communications Commission considers rules for releasing more spectrum for fifth generation (5G) networks, one issue is the framework.

The FCC wants to allow flexible use of 28-GHz and 39-GHz frequencies that in the past have been allocated for fixed wireless, satellite or applications. You will instinctively understand the friction such changes will engender on the part of incumbent users.

Verizon argues that, in addition, the 37 GHz band should be combined with the 39 GHz band into a single 3 GHz band of contiguous spectrum (with channels at least 200 MHz wide) all subject to the same rules. That would work because, in the U.S. market, 38 GHz already is available for mobile use.

Although not suited for coverage apps, such high-frequency spectrum is useful for densification. That will be essential if end user bandwidth climbs to 20 Gbps per device, with one millisecond access network latency, as now forecast.

source: Reed Hundt

source: Reed Hundt