There is a mental trap we often fall into when trying to quantify the impact of future services. One big issue right now is the revenue upside for 5G, where expectations range from “there is no business case” to optimism about huge new use cases and incremental revenue.
One can cite equally-emphatic assertions that there is no business case, as well as hopeful expectations in that regard.
That applies to expected demand for narrowband internet of things services and apps as well.
It is helpful to remember that discrete companies and industries, in specific geographies, with differing sets of assets, will have rationally different expectations. But those expectations tend to be stated as universal, not particular. And that is where we can get into some trouble.
Most forecasts expect the bulk of IoT demand to come from Asia and North America. So it is rational for executives in those geographies to invest faster.
It might be equally rational for executives in other regions to move more slowly, especially if present business models make major new investment difficult. That might be true even where market opportunities exist.
In all cases, rational expectations about incremental revenue upside are the underlying drivers of opinion.
Also, existing IoT revenue already is skewed by geography. In the energy industry, North America and the Middle East are expected to be the biggest markets in 2020. In the utility market, North America and Europe are expected to be the largest markets in 2020.
In the healthcare IoT market, North America was biggest in 2017, with the highest growth to 2022 coming from Asia.
The point is that it is rational for some companies, in some regions, to be skeptical about 5G and 5G-based internet of things. Those positions tend to reflect both expected opportunities and obstacles.
x
No comments:
Post a Comment