Does 5G "Change Everything" or "Change Nothing?"

The problem with our forecasts or expectations about next-generation mobile networks is that we tend toward extremes. On one hand, some argue the next-generation network (5G or 6G, for example, will disrupt everything or change nothing. In time, we tend to find that neither view is correct. 

source: Cisco, Raconteur 

Who among us would really argue that 100-Mbps internet access is not better than sub-1 Mbps access? Who would argue that gigabit access is not better than 100 Mbps access? Those are significant, important advances. They might not directly affect all experiences or all possibilities, but they help create the platform for such advances to keep happening. 

On the other hand, we are likely to find equally wrong the notion that 5G--in and of itself--has the potential to “change everything.” It probably will not do so. Did 2G 3G or 4G really “change everything?” 

Few would likely argue that. But did those innovations change many things? Yes, many are likely to say. 2G brought messaging into widespread use. 3G brought mobile internet access. 4G enabled video streaming and began opening up opportunities for mobile substitution for fixed access. 

Eventually, we will probably find that 5G likewise allowed some new use cases to become popular. Nor can we ignore experience gains because devices got better and apps were able to create new functions based on better devices and networks. 

Sure, mobile operators worry about monetizing their investments in new spectrum and networks, for good reason. The fundamental problem is the difficulty of monetizing higher data consumption while retail rates remain stubbornly flat. 

Flat rate pricing with unlimited usage might not be deemed fully rational. Achieving lower cost per bit is, in fact, one of the reasons mobile operators move to next-generation networks; why investment co-ventures are a trend and why new services and lower operating costs are desirable. 

Despite that enduring challenge, even incremental advances add value. We can debate how much faster 5G is than 4G. We can debate how much value comes from a gigabit home broadband connection, compared to 100 Mbps. But most people, over time, will prefer the incrementally-faster access service, whether mobile or fixed. 

As more apps are retooled to take advantage of higher speeds or lower latencies, new experiences will emerge. But those advances will not be “solely” because of 5G or 6G.