Though the degree of market share gain is yet unknown, Verizon expects fixed wireless to dramatically expand addressable home broadband households.
By 2025, Verizon Communications expects to be able to market home broadband to 70 million locations. Matthew Ellis, Verizon CFO, says the firm expects 50 million fixed wireless addressable locations and 20 million Fios fiber-to-the-home passings.
Consider that Verizon FTTH is available in eight U.S. states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. But fixed wireless supported by Verizon’s 4G and 5G network will be a national provider. Most expect 4G to be relevant in some rural markets where Verizon has excess 4G capacity.
Once Verizon’s new C-band spectrum assets are turned up, the firm expects to be able to market to 15 million more fixed wireless locations. That currently is expected to happen by the end of 2021.
That expansion of home broadband availability is highly important in terms of potential market share. Up to this point, telcos collectively have been able to really compete with cable Tv operator value propositions in only a portion of their fixed network footprint.
The reason is that FTTH has been offered in only portions of any telco’s service territory, and digital subscriber line (copper access) has not been competitive with cable home broadband, which offers gigabit access covering about 80 percent of U.S. homes.
But expansion of FTTH homes passed and fixed wireless will add new supply of home broadband that is competitive with larger portions of the potential buyer base.
In some cases that will mean gigabit speeds. In other cases speeds of hundreds of megabits per second will be possible, and that is the center of the U.S. market at the moment. In other areas--such as rural areas--service might only be available in the 50 Mbps range, but that still could be competitive for 20 percent of buyers who prefer to buy services operating no faster than 100 Mbps.
Nearly half the market presently buys service operating between 100 Mbps and 200 Mbps. And nearly 68 percent of the U.S. market buys service operating no faster than 200 Mbps.
Also, the U.S. home broadband market is big enough that gaining just a couple of points of the installed base and market share generates substantial revenue. By 2023, fixed wireless might represent about 4.5 percent of all home broadband accounts , some estimate.
Some believe fixed wireless market share could reach double digits, representing billions in incremental new revenue for some suppliers.
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