5G will account for 77 percent of mobile service provider revenues in 2026, Juniper Research predicts. 5G service revenue will reach $600 billion by 2026, the firm projects. Those figures might come as something of a surprise for observers skeptical about the 5G business model.
And the forecast might be on the optimistic side. Still, the history of next-generation mobile networks is that each successive generation displaces those before it.
So essentially, 5G revenues will displace 4G, 3G and 2G subscription revenues, at the very least. Basically, arguing that 5G will eventually represent 77 percent of total service revenue is only to state that mobile service is purchased by most humans, and that, over time, 5G becomes the standard platform for such purchases.
To be sure, new revenue sources ranging from internet of things to edge computing will add to revenue. But the basic revenue stream will continue to be service for phones used by people. Incremental revenue growth will come from connectivity and real estate services provided to servers and sensors.
But consumer mobile phone service will remain the mainstay.
Concerns about the “5G business model” tend to reflect concerns from mobile service provider executives who have only recently upgraded to 4G, and therefore face tougher issues investing in yet another next-generation network, or which operate in markets with relatively light data consumption requirements.
Over a longer perspective, 5G revenue is virtually assured, as it becomes the primary network most people use. The only way 5G could fail to attain that position is if mobile service itself suddenly lost favor.
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