As it might be fair to argue that 5G was the first mobile generation built with new non-human applications in mind, some telco executives seem to be positioning thinking on future 6G in similar ways.
A white paper published by the Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance talks about new services and features that “enable significant and novel capabilities, supporting radically new and differentiated services.”
Of course, one might well argue that has been said of every mobile generation since 3G. And some might note that such thinking is crucial for reasons related to firm equity value. You can imagine what financial and securities analysts are likely to say if mobile operators argue they will have to invest capital in 6G in a decade, but with financial opportunities about the same as 5G.
So some new “sizzle” will have to be part of the argument for 6G, even if the prosaic fact is that mobile networks are upgraded, routinely, every decade to support higher capacity and lower latency.
“New applications and services based on future technologies should be driven by their scope and scale for applications, and market opportunity,” NGMN says. “Development of new technology should consider the law-of-diminishing returns, among others, quantifying demand for it in terms of market value.”
In other words, performance needs to be designed with new applications and use cases in mind, with network costs matched to those expected new opportunities. Nobody knows yet what those opportunities might be.
So far, holographic features, artificial reality and virtual reality are among the use cases proposed for 6G.
Of course, some might also argue that most proposed 6G use cases are among those touted for 5G as well. That perhaps is not surprising. Many use cases imagined for 3G became commercial realities in the 4G era. Perhaps many 4G use cases will actually become common in the 5G era. If so, many hoped-for 5G applications might not emerge until the 6G era.
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