The economic impact of 4G was--as one would expect--believed to be large when first launched in the U.S. market. So, a decade later, were forecasters correct? By some estimates, 4G was expected to produce $73 billion to $151 billion in gross domestic product growth and 371,000–771,000 new jobs.
After about six years, it was argued that 4G accounted for nearly $100 billion of the increase in annual GDP by 2016, according to one analysis by Recon Analytics.
Such analyses always hinge on the assumptions, but mobile industry revenues alone grew by about $100 billion between 2011 and 2014, for example. If one counted only mobile industry direct service revenues, 4G might account for 40 percent to all of that increase, as 4G adoption was about 40 percent in 2014.
According to the CTIA, In 2011, the mobile industry contributed $195.5 billion to U.S. GDP. “Based on historical 3G trends, the industry’s GDP contribution was projected to grow by 126 percent, to $441.8 billion by 2019,” CTIA says. “In reality, 4G blew past all expectations. The industry’s contribution grew to a staggering $690.5 billion in 2019, $248.7 billion more than projected.”
In a broader sense, it was the perceived value of mobile apps and mobile web that arguably drove much of the revenue increase; 4G being an enabler of that broader trend.
Qualcomm has estimated a 5G economic impact of about $13 trillion by 2035, citing research by IHS.
According to Accenture, the gains will take many forms. In manufacturing, 5G-enabled factories experience about 20 percent to 30 percent overall productivity gains including up to 50 percent savings in assembly time, up to 20 percent in asset life and up to 90 percent gains in defect detection.
In retail, 5G enables up to 50 percent increase in sales growth combined with human-focused processes and extended reality visualizations, Accenture says.
In healthcare, 5G allows more remote post-acute care, home-based models, with savings greater than 30 percent and driving better patient outcomes.
Connected vehicle technologies have the potential to reduce the severity of non-impaired accidents by up to 80 percent, potentially saving $3.6 billion in collision costs and possibly reducing traffic by 25 percent, Accenture estimates.
By other estimates 5G will have a $35 trillion impact on new global goods and services by about 2035. Based on experience with 4G, it is conceivable such estimates are correct.
The automotive industry alone might account for $2.4 trillion alone.
The experience with 4G between 2011 and 2019, when gains--even measured mostly in terms of direct impact--exceeded expectations, might well happen with 5G as well.
source: CTIA
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