The general consensus now seems to be that 5G will be adopted about as fast as 4G. That said, one might argue that adoption curves for 2G and 3G were similar, while 4G had a different--and faster--early adoption pattern. The issue is whether 5G adoption curves will look more like 3G or 4G.
Even in the same country, adoption rates of 2G, 3G and 4G have varied. Generally speaking, 2G adoption happened at a faster rate than 3G in Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. The adoption rate for 4G was faster or slower than 3G in those four countries.
Japanese consumers adopted faster, in every generation. U.S. consumers were the slowest to become 2G customers, but among the fastest to adapt to 4G.
Expected 5G uptake in several West European countries might also show some differences from past patterns, according to Ashutosh Jha, Indian Institute of Management Calcutta professor, and Debashis Saha, professor at the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta.
Compared to 2G, consumers in various countries seem to have placed different value on 3G and 4G services
On the other hand, the total number of customers has increased with every successive mobile generation.
But it arguably remains difficult to predict too much about early adopter behavior in specific countries when a next-generation mobile network launches. As happened in some markets early in the deployment of 4G, uptake was limited where 4G speeds were insufficiently faster than 3G, or were inconsistently faster.
But 4G generally was adopted faster than 3G, presumably because higher 4G speeds made use of mobile internet apps noticeably more pleasant and useful. Also, some new apps made available in the 4G era added new value (ride sharing, turn by turn navigation, entertainment video, social media).
Speed improvements over 4G will be obvious in some markets with lots of mid-band spectrum available. That might not be a key driver of U.S. adoption for a while, as deployment strategies using low-band spectrum will not offer much--if any--consistently faster speeds than does 4G.
Spectrum availability also was an early concern in the early 4G era, as faster speeds require additional bandwidth, all other matters (especially cell sizes) being equal.
Network coverage also has made a difference. Device prices and service subscription prices also have mattered.
In some markets, perceived value was an issue. For some users, faster speed was enough. For many others, new applications were necessary. Turn-by-turn directions, video entertainment, ride sharing or social media were the necessary new experiences driving the value of 4G.
Consumer demand also varies. U.S. consumers, for example, were slower to adopt 2G and 3G compared to consumers in other nations. That changed with 4G, when U.S. consumers generally adopted faster than users in many other countries.
It is hard to pinpoint why the adoption curve changed so much by generation, but new applications are the likely reason.
No comments:
Post a Comment