Wait for it: disillusionment with 5G is inevitable, once multiple networks actually cover 90 percent of the U.S. population.” In 2013, a year after 4G-LTE covered approximately 90 percent of the US population, some consumers and businesses still questioned the merits of fourth-generation wireless technology,” say consultants at Deloitte.
If 4G and 3G provide useful comparisons, the commercialization of many new use cases and applications will lage 5G introduction by a significant amount of time. Assuming it takes two years for 5G networks to reach about 90 percent population coverage, we can assume it will take at least five years for useful new use cases to reach about 10 percent usage by the base of 5G customers.
“Most of the innovations and business models that depend on nearly ubiquitous 4G-LTE coverage were not envisioned at its launch,” say consultants at Deloitte.
In the 4G era, even now-popular use cases such as music or video streaming took five years to reach perhaps 20 percent usage by 4G customers.
If 5G follows the trajectory of 3G and 4G, new use cases will take time to develop, lagging actual service availability by as much as five years (for the clear popular innovations) to 10 years (for most niche applications).
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