4G has Not Yet Hit its Peak of Adoption

More than a decade after its launch in December 2009, 4G--which virtually everyone considers a success--represents perhaps 52 percent to 55 percent of all mobile accounts globally. Nor has the number of 4G subscribers, or the percentage of total connections, yet reached its peak. 

That’s the general pattern in mobile services: we launch a new mobile generation roughly every decade, but peak usage of each generation both grows over time, in absolute numbers, and reaches its peak of adoption after perhaps a decade and a half from first launch.  

Talking about 4G success, the Global Mobile Suppliers Association says there are“nearly five billion subscriptions connecting over 55 percent of mobile users worldwide.” That might be an optimistic estimate, as some other reports have 4G accounts at perhaps 4.4 billion accounts. 

According to other sources, the total number of mobile accounts globally was about 8.3 billion in 2019, with 4G accounting for 52 percent of accounts. 

source: Ericsson

Over time, as more people have become mobile users and customers, the total number of subscribers has kept rising. At its peak, there were less than four billion 2G subscribers. 4G has not yet hit its peak, but likely will top around eight billion. Eventually, more than a decade or 1.5 decades from now, 4G will have hit its peak. 

source: TeleGeography

At its peak, there were perhaps 6.5 billion 3G customers. 

The point is that 5G “success” as a platform is virtually assured. Eventually, as customers switch off from older networks (quite often because those networks are shut down), the percentage of 5G accounts will increase over a 15-year period, eventually displacing older connections and 4G. 

Over the long haul, the specific value of 5G for consumers might well boil down to “I need mobile phone service and internet access” more than any specific use cases. 

It remains to be seen whether that is as true for many enterprise scenarios, as most now expect the incremental new value of 5G to come in areas such as the internet of things and edge computing, which will be valued and purchased primarily by enterprise customers.