What Will Drive Your Own 5G Decision?

What is going to pull or push U.S. consumers to 5G? As always, there are some obvious variables: device, speed, service plans or apps.

The obvious answer is mobile internet access “speed,” especially for users who rely on downloading quite a lot, and will notice the the shorter download times. Many users, who primarily use mobile apps and streaming, might not easily be able to perceive the improved performance beyond 4G.

Other users might have an immediate need for a new phone, and might as well get a 5G-capable device, if models they prefer are available.

The value-price relationship could be an issue for some customers, though less the specific value of 5G compared to 4G, and more the value proposition between various suppliers.

It is harder to envision new applications that really require 5G, right now.

It has likely been quite some time since most of us had to ponder the shift to the next-generation network, and such decisions might have last been made a decade ago.

So I was trying to recall the decision matrix that lead me to move from 3G to 4G. Actually, in my case it was 3G to WiMAX, and then WiMAX to LTE. A device upgrade cycle was not a factor. Instead, it was the use case, a price-value decision and at least one specific application.  

In other words, there were a mix of drivers. Most likely, every 5G customer will have their own mix of rationales for upgrading to 5G.

I believe I had been using both a dedicated “MiFi” personal hotspot device and a 3G phone, and decided it made more sense to use a 4G smartphone, tethered, instead of carrying two devices everywhere, which represented both a cost savings and a speed boost.

The only firm date I can recall was the HTC Evo phone launch, the first smartphone to use the Sprint WiMAX network, and the first U.S. network to offer 4G levels of speed, which was available early in 2010, and which I bought early on.

I recall deciding I did not want to wait six months to a year for LTE. So “speed” and cost savings were the immediate driver. Network protocol was not really an issue.

Sprint’s WiMAX service, which provided internet access speed equivalent to Long Term Evolution, launched in 2008. Verizon debuted LTE in December 2010.

The bottom line is that recurring cost (less) and value (more) were the key drivers.

But there was one specific application that reinforced the decision, as well. Google Maps was launched in February 2005, adding turn-by-turn directions in 2009.

I cannot remember precisely when I became aware of Garmin and its application to vehicle GPS, but it was sometime between 2000 and 2006. So that was not a factor in the “upgrade to 4G decision,” but cemented the decision.

As was the case for the “one device instead of two; one subscription instead of two” business case, turn-by-turn directions meant I did not have to buy a Garmin device as well as a subscription to Garmin’s navigation service.

Speed was a driver. But cost savings (avoided devices and accounts) were equally important.

The 5G decision likely will be quite different, though. Speed or cost savings will not likely be big attractions, as my device profile is optimal, eliminating the value of consolidating devices and accounts.

Widespread Wi-Fi means I have less need for tethering, though it still remains a necessary capability (I wouldn’t buy any service plan that would deny the ability to use my purchased usage in either mobile or tethered mode).

I view devices essentially as subscriptions, so “new device” decisions need to be made periodically. I have not seen any potential 5G use cases that would drive an upgrade, so far. For the moment, in other words, the value of upgrading from 3G to 4G will not be so obvious for the 4G to 5G decision. It might happen as part of a device upgrade, but not specifically because there is a use case requiring 5G.