Social and Messaging Apps are Very Sticky, Data Shows

“Stickiness” long has been among the important features of any app or site. “Stickiness” means new users stick around and become regular or habitual users, while regular users become engaged users that do not churn out for another rival app or experience.

That stickiness can be gleaned by looking at Globe Telecom’s experience.

Facebook and Globe launched the “Free Facebook” campaign in October 2013. The campaign aimed to jumpstart internet usage in the Philippines by offering free access to Facebook.

All Globe subscribers – new and existing – could opt-in to unlimited Facebook on mobile. After the trial, subscribers would upgrade to paid data plans.

Over the course of the first phase, the number of data users on Globe’s network doubled, and the portion of Globe’s prepaid subscriber base who were active on mobile data expanded from 14 percent in September 2013 to 25 percent in November 2014, Facebook and Globe say.

Globe’s Free Facebook campaign (and similar internet outreach efforts by other players in the market), led to a six million  increase in the number of active mobile internet users in the Philippines.

During the first phase of the trial, Globe’s user base increased by 17 percent. Along with continuing to use data, these users also shifted core telco spend over to Globe’s network, growing voice and text messaging revenues by five percent.

By the end of the first campaign, prepaid mobile data users grew from 4.8 million to 9.7 million, more than a twofold increase.

That experience illustrates the highly sticky nature of some apps, especially social apps auch as Facebook and messaging apps.

Retention rates of messaging apps outperform the average of all apps, according to Flurry.

In fact, messaging app retention is 1.9 times better than the average app after one month and 5.6 times better than the average app after one year. After 30 days, some 36 percent of people continue to use a new app, compared to 68 percent of people using a new messaging app.

After six months, just 18 percent of people who first used a new app continue to use it. By comparison, about 62 percent of people who started using a messaging app continue to do so.

After a year, just 11 percent of people who tried a new app still use it, compared to 62 percent of people who tried a new messaging app a year ago.  

Messaging apps’ daily use is 4.7 times higher than the average app, Flurry says, while the average daily use of an app across all categories is 1.9 times.

Messaging apps are used, on average, almost nine times every day. Most other apps get used less than twice a day.

Indian Mobile Market to Consolidate from 10 to 6 Constestants

The Indian mobile market will consolidate from about 10 contestants to six in the wake of the recent spectrum auction, says Fitch Ratings, while consumer prices are likely to rise.

“We believe that telcos are likely to raise prices in response to high spectrum prices,” said Fitch Ratings. Also, “most telcos will report negative free cash flow in 2015 as they need to pay a quarter of the committed amount up front.”

The consolidation will happen because spectrum acquisitions will put pressure on balance sheets and cash flow, limiting ability to invest in networks and compete.

The consumer price hikes will occur because the operators have to pay for the spectrum. And much of the acquired spectrum was re-acquired only to support existing operations.

India's spectrum auction raised US$17.7 billion, a sum that now will have to be raised or shifted from other uses, and will prove too heavy a burden for some contestants, Fitch believes.

The biggest four mobile companies--Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Cellular and Reliance Communications--won 82 percent of the licenses. Bharti spent about US$4.7bn. Vodafone invested US$4.2 billion.

Idea Cellular committed US$4.9 billion, while Reliance spent  US$693 million.

Bharti now has the best spectrum assets with its ownership of about 40 percent of the 900 MHz spectrum considered best for coverage, Fitch says.   

Thai 4G Auctions Set for November, December 2015

Thailand plans to auction 4G mobile phone spectrum by the end of 2015, in November and December, using the same format proposed before a postponement of the auctions in 2014.

Such delays always pose some danger the rules could change, favoring or harming various possible contestants.

But the retention of the original rules likely is helpful to market leader Advanced Info Service (AIS), which will not face any new restrictions or rules that might prevent it from obtaining 4G spectrum.

AIS rivals Total Access Communications and True Corp already offer 4G, so AIS, though the market leader overall, needs to catch up in 4G.

About 25 MHz of spectrum at 1.8 GHz and 17.5 MHz at 900 MHz are expected to be made available.

the NBTC confirmed it will auction off two 1800 MHz licenses, both offering 12.5 MHz of spectrum. There will also be two 900 MHz licenses, one with 10 MHz of spectrum and the other 7.5 MHz.

There is some talk that additional spectrum might be made available.  

U.K. to Shift 190 MHz of Government Spectrum to Mobile Use

About 190 MHz of communications spectrum in the United Kingdom 2.3 GHz and 3.4 GHz bands will be shifted from military to commercial uses. Still undetermined are the bidding processes and rules, which many believe could involve set-asides to promote competition in the market.

Often, that takes the form of reserving a certain amount of spectrum for smaller bidders or new entrants. Ofcom likely will have to devise rules in light of consolidation at the top of the U.K. market, assuming BT’s acquisition of EE assets, and Hutchison’s acquisition of Telefonica assets are approved.

Whether, in the long run, such set-asides actually work is open for debate. But there is a belief that the new spectrum will be better suited to boost capacity, rather than coverage, and is more valuable in high-density areas than rural areas, for example.

The frequencies being awarded include 40 MHz of spectrum within the 2.3 GHz band (2350-2390 MHz) and 150 MHz of spectrum within the 3.4 GHz band (at 3410-3480 MHz and 3500-3580 MHz).

At present, Ofcom does not plan to restrict use of the spectrum for backhaul or end user retail coverage.

Ofcom currently proposes that the spectrum be sold in lots of 5 MHz and that bidders will be

able to specify a minimum requirement of up to 20 MHz.

As currently envisioned, there will be one category of eifht lots in the 2.3 GHz band and 30 lots in one category of the 3.4 GHz band.

Ofcom has proposed minimum reserve prices in the 2.3 GHz band in the range of £2.5 million to £5 million per 5 MHz lot and for the 3.4 GHz band £1 million per 5 MHz lot.

Ofcom has said “some competition measures are justified in the 2.3/3.4 GHz auction.” That currently is seen as including an overall cap in the auction on the amount of mobile spectrum that may be held by one company of 310 MHz.

How Will Mobile Operators Accommodate Asymmetrical Demand?

Network engineers always have had to design for cost and efficiency, as well as to support expected traffic demand. That is why sharing of network resources is so important: it reduces capital investment.

But it is one thing to dimension a network for symmetrical apps. It is quite another matter to design a network supporting mostly asymmetrical traffic. That is something broadcast TV and radio engineers understand well.

One reason cable TV networks used asymmetrical frequency plans (much more bandwidth downstream, compared to upstream) is that the expected apps were “broadcast” (multicast in IP parlance).

As more content consumption moves to mobile networks, traffic patterns are changing.

Though mobile networks once were designed for symmetrical traffic, Internet traffic now drives bandwidth demand on mobile networks, and that traffic is highly asymmetrical, one reason access to Wi-Fi and other non-traditional networks has become so important.

What to do about that situation is the issue

Though social media video uploads could make a difference in some cases (such as user behavior at large entertainment events, where people are uploading videos, virtually all studies of “normal” traffic show a skew of traffic in the downstream direction, ranging from 3:1 to 10:1, downstream to upstream.  

Telefónica O2’s customers, as an example, are using 60 percent more data than they were 12

months ago, and 600 percent more than at the end of 2010, according to Real Wireless.

The uplink:downlink ratio, on a mobile network supporting 3G or 4G, is now about 1:7, and much of the downstream traffic is bandwidth-intensive video.

So will most mobile networks be refashioned for asymmetrical traffic? To a point, perhaps, though mostly in the form of supplying more overall bandwidth at heavy traffic locations, using small cells, carrier Wi-Fi or Wi-Fi offload.

That is why spectrum sharing, and the move towards dynamic spectrum allocation, are important. They will allow offloading of asymmetrical mobile data demand.

Even if mobile networks fundamentally remain designed for symmetrical bandwidth upstream and downstream, future requirements for support of asymmetrical traffic will be accommodated by increasing the total amount of available bandwidth, offloaded from the core mobile network.

FCC Nears Action on Shared 3.5-GHz Spectrum

At its April 17, 2015 meeting, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission will consider a spectrum sharing proposal in 3.5 GHz to 3.65 GHz  spectrum licensed to military radar services.  

The a draft “Report and Order” would create a new “Citizens Broadband Radio Service” allowing entities to share that spectrum when not needed by the present licensed entities, and also allow unlicensed access when available as well, using a three-tier access policy.

“As a result of technological innovations and new focus on spectrum sharing, we can combine it with adjacent spectrum to create a 150 megahertz contiguous band previously unavailable for commercial uses,” said Tom Wheeler, FCC Chairman.

The lowest tier in the hierarchy, General Authorized Access (GAA), is open to anyone with an FCC-certified device and will operate much as Wi-Fi access does.

In the Priority Access tier, users of the band can acquire at auction targeted, short-duration licenses that provide interference protection from GAA users.

At the top of the hierarchy, incumbent federal and commercial radar, satellite, and other users will receive protection from all Citizens Broadband Service users.

Among the other issues to be addressed are permissible air interfaces, including Wi-Fi and Long Term Evolution-Unlicensed.  

Facebook's Aquila Drone in Flight

Here's a video of Facebook's Internet drone in test flight. 

The wingspan is about that of a Boeing 737. 

In Asia, Age Plays Huge Role in Mobile Internet Use

In some ways, there are few surprises in a Pew Research Center survey of Internet usage and activities across 32 countries, including the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, India and China.

Broadly, the survey found higher Internet use by younger people. wealthier people, better educated people, those who own personal computers and smartphones, and those who speak English. The survey also confirms that most people rely on mobile networks for Internet access, not fixed networks, like to send text messages and photos.

Internet access differs substantially across the 32 emerging and developing countries polled, with the lowest rates of internet use in South Asian and sub-Saharan African nations.

The lowest internet rates are in some of the poorest countries surveyed. Just eight percent of Pakistanis and 11 percent of Bangladeshis either say they access the internet at least occasionally or own a smartphone.

Younger people ages 18 to 34 are more likely to report accessing the internet than their older counterparts in every country polled, including differences of more than 15 percentage points in all but three countries available for analysis.

Especially large differences occur in Asia, with age differences of 40 points or more in five countries. For example, in Thailand 83 percent of young people are online, compared with just 27 percent of older Thais.

Education is also associated with Internet usage. In all nations surveyed with a sufficient sample size to analyze, those with a secondary education or higher were more likely to access the internet than those with less than a secondary degree.

Those who own computers, those who can speak or read some English, and those with a secondary education or higher are considerably more likely to use the internet.

In addition to these factors, having a higher income, being male and being employed have a significant, positive impact on internet use, though to a lesser degree.

Age also has a significant influence on internet use, controlling for other demographics. In emerging and developing markets, older people are significantly less likely than their younger counterparts to engage in online activity.

Smartphone ownership is 47 percent in Malaysia. But age plays a huge role. Some 72 percent of those 18 to 34 own a smartphone, while only 27 percent of those 35 and older own a smartphone.  

Differences of 30 percentage points or more also exist in China, Thailand and Vietnam.

Smartphone ownership is also higher among the more educated.

Across the 32 countries surveyed, a median of just 19 percent say they have a working landline connection in their home, including as few as one percent in Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda and Bangladesh.

All of those findings are in line with what one would expect.

Facebook Aquila Would Use Drones to Provide Internet Access

Facebook, like many other companies, believes it never will be possible to connect everyone on the planet using fixed networks. The costs are simply too high to earn a return on invested capital.

"This basically mean going to the sky," Facebook CTO Mike Schroepfer Schroepfer said.

Aquila is a Facebook project development an Internet-connected unmanned aerial vehicle with the wingspan of a 737 and the "mass of a small car."

It would fly over regions of the developing world, providing Internet access to people who cannot presently get access.

Aquila can remain aloft for up to three months at a time, and beam high-speed internet from between 60,000 and 90,000 feet in the sky. In the past,

Facebook has talked about a fleet of perhaps 1,000 unmanned aerial vehicles providing Internet access.  

South Asia ISPs Have to Move Faster As Competition Builds

There is a quickening sense of tempo for Internet service providers in many parts of South Asia and Southeast Asia, as new satellite constellations, Google balloons and possibly other methods are proposed for rapidly bringing affordable Internet access to everyone.

Consider Thailand. Though details are yet unsettled, Thailand wants to launch a national high speed access program to reach literally all villages in Thailand, and provide affordable Internet access for all,  within about 18 months.

If implemented, the initiative could affect the addressable market for new providers, as well as market share of mobile and fixed service providers in rural areas of Thailand.

In other words, Internet service providers will have to move faster to take advantage of market opportunities, as competition is building.

"Infrastructure  is the fundamental factor of the digital economy,” said Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula.

The focus on digital-economy policy is touted as the key foundation of the country's economic development. To be sure, previous governments have made the same argument.

Thai Internet access adoption currently is about 26 percent of households.

India Average Mobile Internet Access Speed is 1 Mbps

In the fourth quarter of 2014, China had an average mobile Internet access speed of about 4 Mbps; Hong Kong about 5.7 Mbps. India had average mobile speeds about 1 Mbps, according to Akamai.

Sri Lanka and Malaysia had average mobile speeds of about 2 Mbps, while Thailand average speeds were a bit lower, at about 1.8 Mbps. according to Akamai.

In the Asia-Pacific region, South Korea had the highest average overall connection speeds (fixed and mobile) at 22.2 Mbps, while Indonesia had the lowest at 1.9 Mbps.

Hong Kong had the highest average overall Internet peak connection speed at 87.7 Mbps, while Indonesia had the lowest at 13.4 Mbps.

Global Cost of a Mbps of Internet Access is US$5.27

According to the Ookla Net Index, the present retail cost of 1 Mbps worth of Internet access capability ranges from $5.27 in the United States to $3.31 in the European Union and $2.68 in Hong Kong. National or regional averages can vary significantly, however.

Even where a national average is $5.27, some locations can have costs as low as $1.77. Denver, Colorado has a typical per-Mbps cost of $3.09, while Denver suburbs have costs lower than that.

In India, a Mbps of capability costs $8.71; in Indonesia $16.69 and in Thailand $2.25.

Though retail prices do not scale linearly at lower speeds, one might roughly argue that 500 kbps of access speed might cost $4.35 in India; $8.34 in Indonesia and $1.12 in Thailand.

One might argue those averages have to be adjusted for the fact that, in many countries, mobile access, which almost always is slower than fixed, is the way most people access the Internet.

Nor are existing prices compelling for potential users who probably cannot afford to spend more than 15 cents a month to 50 cents a month for service.

Hutchison Whampoa Three Might Soon be Biggest U.K. Mobile Operator, by Revenue Share

Hutchison Whampoa is close to announcing a  $15 billion acquisition of U.K. mobile operator O2, a move that would help reshape the U.K. mobile market vaulting Three, Hutchison’s U.K. mobile operation up to the top of the market, in terms of revenue market share.

If the acquisition is approved, Three would have about 38 percent revenue share, possibly reaching the top spot for revenue share in the U.K. market.

NAB Wants to Halt TV White Spaces, Supporters Say There is No Problem

Any database-driven approach to spectrum sharing will hinge on the accuracy of the databases, it goes without saying. Citing errors in the databases, the U.S. National Association of Broadcasters has asked for an immediate halt to TV white spaces operations in the United States.

The Wireless Innovation Alliance, which supports TV white spaces deployment, counters that NAB provided no evidence of interference, no evidence that any FCC requirement is not being met, and no instance of any harm to a broadcaster from the data-entry rules and processes it criticizes.

NAB alleges there is evidence of “false entries.”

“The current database design allows--and may encourage--users of TV white space devices (also known as TV Band Devices or TVBDs) to falsify information they are required to enter into the database when they register certain fixed and mobile devices,” NAB argues. “This information includes, among other things, the location information upon which the Commission premised the entire concept for spectrum sharing in the TV band.”

NAB says it has conducted multiple analyses of the TVWS database in 2014, and, that at various points, more than a third of the devices in the database contained “patently inaccurate” location information.

The Wireless Innovation Alliance counters that test entries are a necessary part of the verification process.

The "discrepancies" between location and address are not indications of a messy database, the Wireless Innovation Alliance says.  

The database contains two entries for each device: Its actual location and a contact record for the operator of the device.

The “location” is where the device is; the “address” could be where the responsible company can be contacted.

The skirmishing is not terribly unusual. Struggles over allocation of spectrum often pit broadcasters against communications interests or satellite interests against mobile interests.

Smartphone Future is in Emerging Markets

"The future of smartphones lies in emerging markets, sub-US$100 price points, and phablets," said Melissa Chau, International Data Corp. senior research manager. "In 2014, 73 percent of smartphones were shipped to emerging markets, 21 percent were priced below US$100, and 12 percent had screen sizes between 5.5 and seven inches.

By 2019, 80 percent of smartphones will be shipped to emerging markets, 35 percent will be priced below US$100, and 32 percent will have a 5.5-inch to 7-inch screen size.

As recently as 2010, PCs still made up the lion's share of the total “smart connected device” market, with the combined desktop and notebook categories accounting for almost 53 percent of shipments compared to nearly 45 percent for smartphones and three percent for tablets.

By 2014, smartphones had grown to represent almost 73 percent of total shipments, while PCs had slipped to nearly 17 percent and tablets had increased to about 13 percent.

By 2019, IDC expects the distribution to be nearly 78 percent smartphones, almost 12 percent PCs, and about 11 percent tablets.

Vietnam Smartphone Shipments Grow 41% in 2014

Some 28.7 million mobile phones were shipped in Vietnam in 2014, representing 13 percent year over year growth.

Smartphones represented 41 percent of all mobile phones shipped to Vietnam in 2014, or 11.6 million units, and are expected to eclipse feature phones in 2015.

Smartphone sales grew 57 percent in 2014, International Data Corp. says. As is the case elsewhere in Asia, lower-priced smartphones are driving the trend.

"The low-cost segment has been the main driver, with six out of ten smartphones as budget models priced below US$150 are shipped to Vietnam," said " Võ Lê Tâm Thanh, IDC senior market analyst.

Sub-$100 Smartphones Drive Philippines Adoption

Sub-PHP4,000 (US$90) smartphone models accounted for more than 58 percent of smartphone shipments to the country last year, according to International Data Corp., showing how fast smartphone prices are dropping, eliminating one more barrier to widespread use of the Internet.

According to IDC, a total of 26.8 million mobile phones were shipped to the Philippines in 2014. The share of smartphones increased to 47 percent in 2014, up from 24 percent in 2013, representing 76 percent growth year over year.

The Philippines now is the third largest market for smartphones in Southeast Asia, coming after Indonesia and Thailand,” said Jerome Dominguez, IDC market analyst.

The Philippines is also the fourth country in Southeast Asia to ship more smartphones than feature phones, after Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. The 3rd quarter of 2014 was the first time in the Philippine market where smartphone shipments surpassed those of feature phones.

Lee Kuan Yew, 1923 to 2015

Lee Kuan Yew, indisputably the architect of Singapore's economic rise, has died. He leaves a legacy including the notion that Singapore offers a model to be emulated for economic development across Asia.

Among his accomplishments was taking Singapore from third world to first world within is lifetime.

SE Asia Enterprise IT Spending Will Generate $27 Billion in Communications Spending by 2018

By 2018, enterprise IT spending in Southeast Asia will total $62 billion, according to forecasts from Gartner.

If global patterns of spending apply, communications spending in Southeast Asia will be  much as $27 billion in 2018, using a rule of thumb that communications represents about 43 percent of all information technology spending, these days.

That will strike some of you as a high forecast. The estimate includes data transport, but also mobile services.

The Southeast Asia region comprises 11 countries of which Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand spend the most on IT and account for roughly 80 percent of IT spend in the region.

Together, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand will spend $52 billion on IT in 2015, with annual growth of six percent, Gartner says.

Globally, the percentage of communications spending specifically related to core communications services was much as 44 percent of 2014 information technology spending, and about 43 percent of all 2015 global IT spending.

                    Worldwide IT Spending Forecast (Billions of U.S. Dollars)

	2014 Spending	2014 Growth (%)	2015 Spending	2015 Growth (%)
Devices	696	3.8	732	5.1
Data Center Systems	141	0.8	143	1.8
Enterprise Software	317	5.8	335	5.5
IT Services	956	2.7	981	2.5
Telecom Services	1,626	-0.1	1,638	0.7
Overall IT	3,737	1.0	3,828	2.4

source: Gartner

Gartner estimates that enterprise spending on IT products and services in Singapore will be US$19.1 billion (SGD $24 billion) in 2015. Compared with other mature markets in the region, such as Australia, this intensity of IT spending is high relative to Singapore's gross national output and population.

The dominant sectors in 2015 will be communications, media and services, banking and securities, government and manufacturing. Together they will account for 70 percent of total enterprise IT spending in the country in 2015. The fastest-growing industry segments through 2018 will be banking and securities, utilities and manufacturing, and natural resources.

Spending by enterprises in Malaysia is projected to be US$12.6 billion (MYR 40.6 billion) in 2015 at an annual growth rate of 6.4 percent across data centers, software, IT services, internal services, devices and telecom services.