Big Change in Fixed Wireless as a U.S. Access Platform?

Fixed wireless long has been seen as a key access platform by rural Internet service providers and many would-be suppliers of high-bandwidth services to businesses in cities. As common as fixed wireless remains in rural markets, it has failed to get traction in urban markets.

But big changes might be coming.

Google Fiber has put its plans to build a fiber access network in Portland in the fall of 2016 on at least temporary hold. “Why” is the question everyone should be asking.

In principle, Google Fiber could be wrestling with the business model, as competitors Comcast and CenturyLink have themselves been upgrading their own networks in the Portland area. That might make for a more-difficult payback model.

CenturyLink, for example, already is gigabit services in Portland, as does Comcast. That arguably makes harder the business model for Google Fiber or any other ISP that might be contemplating entering the Portland market.

It will not be so easy to attack as the only provider of 1 Gbps service if the other two leading ISPs already are doing so.

"We're continuing to explore the possibility of bringing Google Fiber to Portland and other potential cities," Google says. "This means deploying the latest technologies in alignment with our product roadmap, while understanding local requirements and challenges, which takes time."

Also, it might be reasonable to assume that Google Fiber is about to try and become “Google Internet” and use fixed wireless as the access platform, not optical fiber.

That would be a major development. Facebook, AT&T and Verizon are other entities expected to promote or use fixed wireless as a major access platform for Internet access, and eventually gigabit access services.

Personally, I think Google Fiber has looked at the numbers and concluded a gigabit network that might cost $300 million is simply too big a risk in the existing Portland market, compared to its potential prospects several years ago: before CenturyLink and Comcast moved to upgrade.

This could be the leading edge of a very big change in access strategy and business models.

Mobile To Become Top Global Online Video Medium in 2016

In 2016,  globally, mobile devices will overtake “fixed devices” to become the main platform for viewing online video, according to Zenith Optimedia .

Consumers around the world will spend an average of 19.7 minutes a day viewing online videos on their mobile devices (smartphones and tablets), compared to 16.0 minutes on fixed devices (both desktop computers and smart TV sets).

This represents a 39 percent leap for mobile from 2015, when 14.2 minutes were spent viewing mobile video.

Fixed video consumption will be static in 2016. The rapid growth in mobile video consumption is being driven by the growing popularity of mobile devices, particularly low-cost devices in lower-income countries; the development of better mobile displays; and the spread of high-speed data connections, particularly 4G.

The firm forecasts mobile video consumption will grow 33 percent in 2017 and 27 percent in 2018, to reach 33.4 minutes a day.

Mobile devices will account for 64 percent of all online video consumption in 2018.

India Mobile Operators Deploy Mobile Connect, Allowing Single Sign-In for Internet Apps

Single sign-in is a consumer friendly practice helpful for mobile app providers of all types. Now single sign-in is potentially available for app providers in India, as the GSMA’s Mobile Connect mobile-based authentication solution is now available to more than 800 million consumers across India..

Aircel, Bharti Airtel, Idea, Tata Teleservices Ltd, Telenor and Vodafone now support Mobile Connect features.

GSMA says 42 mobile operators in 22 countries around the world are implementing Mobile Connect, making it available to nearly three billion customers.

The GSMA’s Mobile Connect solution enables customers to create and manage a digital universal identity via a single login.

Mobile Connect works by employing the user’s unique mobile number, combined with a unique PIN for more secure use cases, to verify and grant online access.

GaneshaSpeaks, GoIbibo, Trupay, Twigly, Zee Digital Group and Zomato, covering areas such as commerce, finance and banking, health services, media and entertainment and travel and hospitality, already have decided to use Mobile Connect.

BuyHatke and Times Mobile also will do so.

Telenor Will Skip India Spectrum Auction

Telenor Group says it will not participate in the spectrum auction in India in 2016. That might, under some circumstances, seem an odd or dangerous decision, based on Telenor India’s lack of spectrum covering the whole of India, where the leading mobile carriers mostly already have pan-India coverage.

But spectrum purchases are like any other capital investment a mobile operator makes, a calculated decision based on business strategy. In this case, observers speculate that Telenor has made a decision to exit the India market, reason enough not to acquire new spectrum.

In other cases, firms might decide not to bid because they already have enough spectrum for immediate needs (Sprint in the U.S. market provides an example), or because other options are available.

In some cases, where capital is available, and regulatory conditions permit, one firm can buy another, acquiring spectrum assets by acquisition.

Occasionally, other options might exist, such as expected additional spectrum assets becoming available, through additional auctions, by using offload mechanisms more fully, by redesigning networks or even activating licensed spectrum that has, for one reason or another, not yet been deployed.

One big strategic shift, in some markets, is an expectation that vast new quantities of spectrum--in the millimeter wave region--will be coming to market on a time frame suitable to waiting. That might be a bigger factor in the U.S. market, for example.

Singapore VC Joins Spectrum Futures Lineup

Wish Ronquilo, a partner with venture capital firm HaxAsia, based in Singapore, is among the latest speakers to confirm their participation on the Spectrum Futures program. Wish is a Singapore VC specializing in Internet of Things and mobile apps, as well as helping with the HaxAsia hardware accelerator program.

She will speak about where she sees IoT market opportunities, especially related to mobile delivery. That matters for service providers for whom IoT arguably is the single most-important area of application partnerships.

Wish Ronquilo, partner, HaxAsia

Other confirmed speakers in the Spectrum Futures IoT track include Narendra K. Saini, Chief Evangelist and Chair - Smart Governance WG, M2M/IoT Asia Pacific & Smart Grid India, and TSDSI & TEC, Govt. of India.

Shrinath V, Venture Capitalist and Google Developer Expert, India and Jay Fajardo, CEO, Launchgarage, Philippines will speak about the process of app development and where they see opportunities.

Sushil Kumar, Deputy Director General (IoT), Telecommunication Engineering Center, Department of Telecommunications, India, also will address IoT prospects in India.

Prakash Kamtam, Advisor, Smart Cities India Foundation, India Murty NSN, Executive Director & Leader, Smart Cities, PwC India, India both will focus on smart cities developments across South Asia, with an emphasis on where opportunities will develop first.

Sucessor to Copper Fixed Network Might Increasingly be Wireless

It no longer is entirely clear whether an updated fiber-to-home fixed network is the logical replacement for an older all-copper fixed network, as crazy as that might seem. In fact, over time, mobile networks or fixed wireless are going to be reasonable product substitutes.

Part of the reason is new platform development that makes fixed wireless more capable. The other big change is a huge increase in the amount of both licensed and unlicensed spectrum available to support fixed and mobile access with bandwidth high enough to challenge optical fiber networks.

What matters is the usefulness of the access network and its capabilities, not its physical media. And huge changes are coming in the spectrrum area.

In an unprecedented move, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission is making available an extraordinary amount of new spectrum--including seven gigaHertz (7 GHz)  worth of unlicensed spectrum, in the millimeter wave bands, and a total of 11 GHz, including 3.85 GHz of licensed spectrum, in a first wave.

Keep in mind that the new allocations represent many times more spectrum than all other existing spectrum now available for mobile and wireless communications in the U.S. market. Just how much more depends on one’s assumptions about coding techniques and modulation.

But it is possible the new spectrum will represent an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude more communications spectrum than presently is available for mobile and wireless communications purposes.

Consider that U.S. Wi-Fi spectrum is counted in the low hundreds of MHz, while mobile spectrum might be counted in the 500 MHz to 600 MHz range. Using just those two metrics, and not accounting for sophisticated modulation techniques, the new FCC spectrum represents, at minimum, about 30 times the amount of all Wi-Fi and mobile spectrum combined.

And that is before we take into account the modulation techniques. That means effective throughput is a multiple of the raw amount of spectrum. It isn’t hard to derive an estimate of two orders of magnitude more throughput, using the new millimeter wave spectrum.

So, as a practical matter (because the higher frequencies can carry much more data than lower frequencies), the new millimeter unlicensed spectrum arguably represents much more access spectrum than presently allocated for all other mobile, Wi-Fi and fixed wireless purposes.

Nor is that all. The Commission also adopted a Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, which seeks comment on  rules adding another 18 GHz of spectrum encompassing eight additional high-frequency bands, as well as spectrum sharing for the 37 GHz to 37.6 GHz band.

Huge, Huge, Huge Amount of New Mobile and Untethered Spectrum is Coming in U.S. Market

In a truly unprecedented move, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission is making available an extraordinary amount of new spectrum--including seven gigaHertz (7 GHz)  worth of unlicensed spectrum, in the millimeter wave bands, and a total of 11 GHz, including 3.85 GHz of licensed spectrum, in a first wave.

As a practical matter (because the higher frequencies can carry much more data than lower frequencies), the new millimeter unlicensed spectrum arguably represents more access spectrum than presently allocated for all other mobile, Wi-Fi and fixed wireless purposes.

Nor is that all. The Commission also adopted a Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, which seeks comment on  rules adding another 18 GHz of spectrum encompassing eight additional high-frequency bands, as well as spectrum sharing for the 37 GHz to 37.6 GHz band.

That means a total of about 29 GHZ of new communications spectrum, available for mobile and untethered use, will eventually be coming to market.

The new rules create a new “Upper Microwave Flexible Use” service in the 28 GHz (27.5-28.35 GHz), 37 GHz (37-38.6 GHz), and 39 GHz (38.6-40 GHz) bands, and a new unlicensed band at 64 GHz to 71 GHz.

Altogether, that will make nearly 11 GHz of high-frequency spectrum for flexible, mobile and fixed use wireless broadband, including 3.85 GHz of licensed spectrum and 7 GHz of unlicensed spectrum.

These rules will support unlicensed, licensed and shared access. That, and the fact that so much new spectrum is being made available, will have business model implications for quite a number of ecosystem participants. To the extent that spectrum scarcity is a source of business advantage, or a barrier to competitor entry, that will be less of an issue.

The availability of so much new unlicensed spectrum should make possible new business models for Internet service providers, who will not have to pay for spectrum.

Winners: App providers, independent ISPs, municipal Internet access providers, Internet access cooperatives, device suppliers and consumers.

Losers: Any firm whose equity value depends on the scarcity of its communications spectrum.

The millimeter era is coming, and it will upend current business models and market structures.