Tuesday, January 3, 2023

6G is Inevitable, New Use Cases are Not

6G is inevitable, even if we cannot say much with certainty about it. At the physical layer, we know 6G will be at least 10 times faster, with lower latency than 5G. That has been true of virtually every next-generation digital network since 2G. But most of the differentiation is going to come elsewhere. 


At least as some working with the IEEE envision it, 6G attributes will be most important in terms of architecture: open, distributed, cloud native, more dynamic in resource allocation, disaggregated functions and the ability to support a device from more than one cell location. 


Network slicing--the ability to create virtual sub-networks--should acquire greater granularity. Third-party users might have greater ability to orchestrate their services and features, end to end. 


None of that is too surprising. The desire for network design for decades has been a configurable and dynamic network that decades ago was known as “bandwidth on demand.” The difference now is simply the greater range of parameters that are desired, in terms of dynamic configuration. 


What new use cases and applications could develop remains open. Rarely do designers of any next-generation have a good grasp of what commercial innovations will develop. That is more a matter of discovery than planning. Video and gaming were areas where 4G was predicted to support. 


And video entertainment delivery did turn out to be a big driver of 4G value. Some believed turn-by-turn driving directions would be among the top five new applications, but were wrong in predicting augmented reality would be a big feature. Not too many predicted video conferencing on mobiles would become so popular. 


Many observers expect possible killer apps for 5G will develop to support enterprise use cases, though proponents believe new consumer use cases could develop. Since the time of 3G, though, such forecasts have tended to fall short. But optimism about potential new 5G use cases will remind some of us of similar predictions for 3G and 4G.

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