Friday, September 30, 2022

Will 5G "Succeed," and "How?"

It is probably easier to overstate 5G importance than to understate it. Some proponents might argue that 5G is qualitatively different from 4G in ways that are outcomes relevant. The issue is that many of the innovations using 5G actually are based on something else: internet of things or edge computing or private networks, for example. 


source: GSMA 


Even network slicing, the ability to create virtual private networks, end to end, provides value that can be supplied in other ways. If lower latency is required, then edge computing is a substitute. If higher throughput is required, then both local and wide area private networks are a substitute.  


It also is possible to understate 5G value. To the extent that 5G enables latency reduction of 10 times, plus bandwidth increases of 10 times or more, that value is analogous to improvements of fixed network bandwidth from 100 Mbps to 1,000 Mbps. 


There never was any question but that 5G “would succeed.” But what questions do exist have to do with enabling value. Will 5G lead to new use cases with important use case implications, business model outcomes or other innovations that change outcomes in important ways. 


Mobile operators have been hopeful of 5G revenue boosts. That has happened. But the larger context is that all ISPs must supply ever-more bandwidth over time, often with very-little incremental revenue. 


In that sense, 5G was essential, simply to maintain the existing business case for mobile internet value. Incremental revenue, value and use cases are a plus.


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