It is too early to say whether fixed wireless platforms will be long-lasting drivers of market share in internet access markets, or only relatively temporary. Some believe speed limitations will ultimately reduce fixed wireless attractiveness. Others think fixed wireless capacity can keep growing.
But at least for the moment, it is hard to ignore U.S. cable operator lost market share and the availability of fixed wireless from Verizon and T-Mobile. In the near term, fixed wireless market share gains seem a certainty.
Comcast continues to claim that fixed wireless is not damaging its home broadband business, and that might well be correct. For any ISP, a customer move is an opportunity to gain or add an account, so lower rates of dwelling change should logically reduce the chances of adding new accounts.
In the second quarter of 2022, Comcast reported a net loss of customer relationships and “flat” home broadband accounts.
That might suggest to some observers that stepped-up telco fiber-to-home and fixed wireless account gains might be starting to change market share dynamics. Those trends possibly were not obvious in the first quarter of 2022.
All that said, there are possible signs of change. Fixed wireless already is driving net home broadband additions for T-Mobile. On its second quarter earnings report, T-Mobile added more than half a million net new home broadband accounts, which might put it on track to be the biggest net gainer for the third quarter in a row.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, fixed wireless represented 74 percent of Verizon net home broadband additions.
Comcast did not gain net accounts for the first time, ever, according to market watchers. Verizon added significant numbers of new home broadband accounts in the same quarter.
The longer term issue is demand as typical data consumption keeps growing, and “typical speeds” likewise keep climbing.
Perhaps use of millimeter wave assets and better radio technologies will solve much of that problem for fixed wireless operators. Perhaps new wholesale arrangements will develop.
What might also be happening is that consumer appetite for “more affordable” internet access is substantial. That especially appears to be the case for Verizon and T-Mobile customers who also have mobile service from either of those two providers.
Many households might be willing to trade “speed” for “lower price.” In other words, as with any product, value is a combination of features and price. Fixed wireless might show the existence of a market segment that cares about “reasonable speed for a reasonable price” more than “fast” levels of service.
That is not the whole market, but it is potentially a big enough segment to shift billions of dollars of home broadband revenue and significant market share.
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