Despite high expectations for incremental revenue from network slicing and private networks, neither is likely to generate much new 5G revenue by 2028, at least when compared to consumer 5G subscription revenues, according to ABI Research.
That should not come as a terrible surprise, as mobile revenues always have been dominated by consumer subscriptions and related device fees. Granted, many descriptions of service revenue segments do not distinguish between consumer and business accounts, but business accounts use mobility services in the same way consumers do, if the sales, pricing and support policies might differ.
The point is that mobile subscriptions drive revenue volumes for mobile service providers. Fixed network operators arguably earn a greater percentage of revenue from enterprise customers.
Over time, as internet of things connections grow, “enterprise” accounts will grow in number. But average revenue per connection for IoT will be an order of magnitude to two orders of magnitude less per connection, compared to a mobile phone account.
The upshot is that IoT will drive lots of connections, but with revenue far less per-connection than mobile operators earn from phone accounts. It is too early to know how much total mobile service revenues will be affected by IoT connections.
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