6G Networks Might Feature "Cell-Less" Architecture, Ambient Energy Harvesting, Virtualized RAN

It is possible 6G networks will be fundamentally different from 5G in ways beyond use of spectrum, faster speeds and even lower latency. 6G networks might essentially be “cell-less,” able to harness ambient energy for devices that require no batteries and feature a virtualized radio access network. 

The “cell-less” architecture will allow end user devices to connect automatically to any available radio, on any authorized network. Harvesting of ambient energy will be especially important for internet of things devices and sensors that might not require any batteries at all to operate, reducing operating cost. 

source: IEEE

The virtualized radio access network will provide better connectivity, at possibly lower cost, as user devices can use the “best” resource presently available, on any participating network, including non-terrestrial platforms (balloons, unmanned aerial vehicles or satellites). 

Backhaul might be built into every terrestrial radio, using millimeter wave spectrum both for user-facing and backhaul connections, automatically configured. That will reduce cost of network design, planning and backhaul. 

Researchers now also say such federated networks will be based on machine learning (artificial intelligence), which will be fundamental to the way 6G networks operate. Devices will not only use AI to select a particular radio connection, but will modify behavior based on experience. 

The network architecture might be quite different from today’s “cellular” plan, in that access is “fully user centric,” allowing terminals to make autonomous network decisions about how to connect to any authorized and compatible network, without supervision from centralized controllers.

Though machine learning arguably already is used in some ways to classify and predict, in the 6G era devices might also use artificial intelligence to choose “the best” network connection “right now,” using any available resource, in an autonomous way, not dictated by centralized controllers.  

To be sure, in some ways those changes are simply extrapolations from today’s network, which increasingly is heterogeneous, able to use spectrum sharing or Wi-Fi access, using radio signal strength to determine which transmitter to connect with. 

Architecturally, the idea is that any user device connects to the radio access network, not to any specific radio, using any specific base station, say researchers Marco Giordani, Member, IEEE, Michele Polese, Member, IEEE, Marco Mezzavilla, Senior Member, IEEE, Sundeep Rangan, Fellow, IEEE, Michele Zorzi, Fellow, IEEE. 

source: IEEE

Overall, many 6G features will be designed to reduce the cost and improve the efficiency of the radio access network, especially to create “pervasive” connectivity, not just to add more bandwidth and lower latency for end users and devices.

Verizon Rolls out 4G Home Internet for Rural Areas

Few, if any, decisions made by connectivity providers are the result of anything other than clear understanding of the business implications of choices. That is clear in Verizon’s decision to use its 4G network for rural internet access. 

Verizon is launching 4G-based “LTE Home Internet” service in Savannah, Ga.;  Springfield, Mo. and the Tri Cities, area of Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky. Beginning July 30, Verizon says it will expand such 4G-based home Internet access to customers outside the Fios and 5G footprints. 

The thinking is driven by the business case. Fiber to the home is not viable for Verizon (with its embedded cost structure) in rural areas, even if adjacent to Verizon markets with Fios. Neither is 5G fixed wireless, at the moment. And with Verizon in the early stages of shifting mobile customers to 5G, more capacity will be freed up on the 4G network. 

At this point, the LTE home internet offer is designed to leverage Verizon’s mobile customer base, and to compete for value accounts. The offer also is priced at about the U.S. average monthly cost between $50 and $65 a month, for standalone plans. Prices for internet access purchased as part of a bundle sometimes are lower, though one has to attribute prices in such cases.  

LTE Home Internet costs $40 a month for Verizon mobile customers and $60 a month for non-Verizon mobile customers, and provides unlimited usage. That is a key feature, as the fixed network plans Verizon competes with feature very-large usage allowances. 

The LTE Home router costs $240, and can be purchased on an installment plan for $10 a month. Speeds are set at a minimum of 25 Mbps with peak rates of 50 Mbps. 

The clear business case advantage for Verizon is that it is able to leverage its 4G network and resources, reducing stranded assets and boosting profits over any other approach that would require building a separate network.

LTE Home Internet.: Not Fixed Wireless

The new Verizon home internet service uses the 4G network, with no need for an external customer antenna. 

Enterprise 5G Use Cases: How Big?

Many observers expect that the bulk of net new 5G service revenues and use cases will come from the business use cases and customers, and not consumer customers. The possible debate is over the magnitude of those gains: how big a contribution new enterprise 5G use cases might make, over what time frame. 

Net revenue changes are key, as much consumer and business spending on 5G simply replaces former 4G spending. What matters is the amount of incrementally-new spending. Most observers believe that consumer 5G net revenue impact likely will be modest, since 5G largely replaces consumer 4G. 

New use cases such as augmented reality or virtual reality could affect consumer revenues by creating new demand for low-latency internet access and higher data rates, though possibly within the existing framework whereby performance increases over time but retail prices remain about the same, or drop. 

In contrast, most of the new 5G-enabled or supported use cases such as industrial internet of things, edge computing, autonomous vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicle control networks or private networks represent 5G products sold to business, commercial, government or other organization buyers, not direct to consumers, even if used to create products sold to consumers.

Hence the widespread belief that most of the incremental 5G revenue will come from enterprise use cases. So how big is that potential change? The denominator in this case is the installed base of spending on mobile services. The numerator is the spending delta created by enterprise 5G. 

Historically, in the fixed networks segment of the industry, “business customer” revenues sometimes represented as much as 30 percent to 40 percent of tier-one provider total revenues, though an outsized share of actual telco profits. 

Smaller consumer-focused service providers might have earned less, while specialized business-focused providers might have earned substantially all revenue from business customers. 

source: Deloitte

“Large, integrated operators such as AT&T, Vodafone and Telstra typically see B2B revenues contributing around 30 percent of overall revenues, while for smaller, mobile-only or fixed-only operators, it is closer to 15 percent, Deloitte consultants have said. 

So the issue is how much new 5G enterprise or business services can change the distribution of revenue sources, even if new 5G revenue streams are disproportionately generated by enterprise use cases.

Some believe the growth of enterprise fixed network revenue--for example-- could be in the seven-percent annual range through perhaps 2030. That is a good thing, of course. On the other hand, legacy products sold to enterprises also are expected to decline through 2030, perhaps to the tune of a negative 17 percent compound annual growth rate. 

source: Bain and Company

In that case, new use cases help offset legacy revenue declines, but the overall impact of new revenue sources is offset by legacy revenue declines. The same sort of process should happen in the mobility business. 

Some believe 5G and related services supporting business customers could approach mobile internet revenues in magnitude. That would be significant indeed, as mobile data now represents half of total mobile revenue. 

In turn, mobility services represent more than half of global telecom service provider revenues, and virtually all the revenue growth. IDATE estimates mobile drives 80 percent of revenue growth.  

The point is that enterprise services and attendant revenue is viewed as so strategic because it is the way incremental new revenues can be wrung out of the mobile platform. Among the key issues is how much of that upside can come from connectivity services, as opposed to other roles in the ecosystem. 

Some might argue that unless new roles are assumed by connectivity providers, even enterprise 5G might fail to replace half of total revenues over 10 years.

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to 5G

A funny thing happened on the way to 5G: feared unaffordable levels of investment never happened. Instead, 5G investment now tends to fall within the limits of current spending. That is a huge development for a technology whose detractors often said would cost twice as much as 4G, or even many times the cost of 4G. 

As recently as 2028, many also said in public that there was no compelling business case for 5G. And, to be sure, we cannot yet claim to be certain about the upside from 5G. 

We tend to forget that each next-generation mobile network tends to represent uncertain new use cases and values, the big immediate value being “more capacity (or speed)” and lower cost per supplied bit. Eventually, each mobile platform develops some new use cases, revenue possibilities and value. But that never is so clear at the beginning. 

The latest Gartner estimates for mobile network spending and 5G capital investment show the picture. Global mobile infrastructure spending, despite a nearly 100-percent ramp up in 5G capex in 2020, compared to high 2029 spending, still occurs within a context of 4.4 percent less capex overall. 

source: Gartner

In part, the dip might be explained by impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which is slowing construction timetables. But sharply-declining spending to support 2G, 3G and 4G are bigger drivers. At the same time, we are likely seeing a restraining impact on costs caused by use of open source technology. 

Open source creates lower-cost product substitutes, which also increases competition for legacy suppliers, arguably leading to lower costs for legacy products. Also, 5G was designed to leverage 4G, unlicensed spectrum and spectrum sharing, allowing a more-graceful and lower-cost adoption pattern. 

Whatever the reasons, a feared explosion in capital costs to build 5G has not happened.

How Will Mobile Operators Create $500 Billion in New Revenue Over 10 Years?

How big would edge computing, internet of things or private networks have to be to drive the next stage of revenue growth for mobile operators? 

Much hinges on the assumptions one makes about what happens to current revenue sources.

My own assumption is that mobile operators must replace half their current revenues over the next 10 years, because that is the pattern we tend to see based on product life cycles. As a rule, we can expect any next-generation network to displace earlier generations over any 15-year period. 

All other things being equal, that would mean 5G revenues would displace 2G, 3G and 4G over some period of time. Of course, all things are not equal. Average revenue per user or account drops over time. Profit margins drop over time. Global mobile revenue growth rates now are below one percent annually, though higher in some countries and regions.

The obvious conclusion is that next generation platforms, in and of themselves, used to support existing use cases, do not inevitably boost revenue too much, but arguably support the incremental revenue growth we typically see. 

Looking at products, not network infrastructure, we already can confirm that earlier product drivers--especially voice and messaging--have been displaced by internet access. And though nobody believes that will change much in the near term, eventually even “mobile internet access” will reach saturation, and cease to drive current growth rates. 

In other words, though it might seem unthinkable, there will come a time when neither mobile revenues, nor mobile internet access for present use cases, will drive the next stage of revenue growth. 

The issue is what such a source--or sources--might be. The obvious answers (and hopes) are the internet of things, edge computing and private networks. All three could add new use cases and revenue streams. And the hope is that those sources will eventually reach a magnitude big enough to overcome a lost of half of current revenue over the next decade, as voice, messaging and consumer internet access continue to mature. 

We can rather safely assume that 5G does not, by itself reverse the trend of declining voice and text messaging revenue. The ultimate impact on mobile internet revenue is not clear, but assume modest if any actual ARPU increases for consumer mobile data. On the other hand, 5G does allow operators to scale supply to meet consumer demand at near-equivalent gross revenue per account.  

Assume present global mobile revenue of about $1 trillion. So a loss of half of that revenue over a decade is $500 billion. That’s the theoretical revenue replacement bogey. 

Right now, it does not appear that any single new revenue stream (service provider IoT, edge computing or private networks) alone amounts to $500 billion globally in 10 years. IoT connectivity revenue is highly unlikely to represent a big enough new revenue source to move the needle on a $500 billion annual revenue target. IoT connectivity revenues might be in the $28 billion range globally by about 2025, Analysys Mason has projected.

The point is that IoT connectivity revenues are a fraction of total IoT revenues and are unlikely to reach even $50 billion in annual revenue by 2025. The somewhat obvious conclusion is that other roles in the IoT ecosystem will have to be successfully pioneered by mobile service providers if IoT is to become a revenue source making a meaningful dent in the $500 billion revenue target. 

Something like that also applies to edge computing. Mobile operators can make some incremental revenue as suppliers of edge real estate. But most of that revenue stream lies in the sales of servers, apps or actual “computing as a service.” So far, one would have to say hyperscale computing-as-a-service suppliers are on track to reap much of that revenue stream, unless mobile operators successfully acquire other roles beyond connectivity. 

Edge computing colocation alone is unlikely to drive $50 billion in new revenues by 2025, one might guess. In fact, edge computing revenues overall might not break out of single digits. 

Private networking might be even more difficult, as much of that market opportunity will accrue to suppliers of servers and software, as most Wi-Fi revenue accrues to suppliers of infrastructure. 5G private networking, for example, might not generate much more than single-digit billions of revenue for mobile operators by about 2025. 

The larger point is that, as promising as edge computing, private 5G, private 4G and IoT might be, they do not collectively seem capable of generating anything close to $500 billion in new incremental revenue for mobile operators over the next 10 years, at least not based on colocation, service and connectivity revenues. 

Either additional new--and substantial--new revenue sources must be found or big moves into other parts of the value chain will be necessary to reach $500 billion in new revenue within 10 years. 

It is a tremendous challenge.

How Much Demand for Private 5G Networks?

There are possibly incongruous replies about interest in private mobile networks in a recent Technalysis Research survey of business information technology decision makers. 

On one hand, 57 percent of respondents said they planned to add “private 5G’ while 44 percent said they would add “private 4G.” 

source: Technalysis Research

On the other hand, asked about pandemic spending shifts, private cellular networks dipped the most, suggesting it is a “nice to have” but not “must have” priority right now. 

source: Technalysis Research

The obvious explanation, assuming respondents understood the terms “private 5G,” “private 4G” and “private cellular network” is that those investments or upgrades are not mission critical right now, but are desirable when normalcy returns and IT spending is not dominated by sudden support for nearly-universal work from home. 

That would be in keeping with surveys showing enterprise interest in using small cells to bolster premises mobile coverage, especially to support 5G services in the millimeter wave region. 

On the other hand, there is some possibility that respondents understood “private 5G” or “private 4G” to mean “more use of mobile services.” Few--if any--other surveys have detected such a strong belief that private cellular networks are presently on the roadmap of IT professionals across all industry segments. 

To be sure, forecasts of private 5G infrastructure spending do resemble adoption curves for 5G or small cell deployments generally. 

One question with no obvious answer is how enterprises plan to use private 5G, as that determines how the private networks interconnect with public networks. For machine-to-machine applications and internet of things use cases, backhaul to an internet point of presence is needed. 

If support for public network voice and messaging is required, then interconnection with the mobile service provider’s network is required, using neutral host, dedicated interfaces to one or more mobile service provider radio networks (a repeater or public network small cell or direct  connection to the mobile backhaul network using a baseband connection. 

One new option would be direct connection to the host mobile network using a network slice. A radio slice would tend to work where volume of data is not too great. Where volume is quite heavy a more-traditional optical connection to the mobile network might be preferable, where the private 5G network radio traffic goes to a baseband controller for backhaul to the core network.

5G Features (Arguably) More Technology Advancements than Usual for a Next-Generation Mobile Network

Though each next-generation mobile network has featured order of magnitude improvements in data rates and latency performance, 5G arguably features more than the typical amount of technology innovation. Where 4G is limited to 20-Mhz channels, 5G can support channels hundreds of MegaHertz wide. 

source: Qualcomm

5G also features more-flexible time and frequency slots, leading to lower latency performance, as well as coding that supports higher bandwidths. 

source: Qualcomm

Massive multiple input-multiple output radios are both necessary to deal with millimeter wave signals, but also provide better coverage and capacity when using previously-unusable spectrum. Non-line-of-sight 5G radios also are key for mobility applications using millimeter wave frequencies, which otherwise would remain mostly line of sight limited.

How Big is Private 4G/5G Market?

ABI Research has found that 74 percent of surveyed manufacturing decision-makers plan to upgrade communications and control networks in “the next two years” to support “digital transformation and Industry 4.0.”

More than 90 percent are investigating use of 4G and 5G to support such networks and 84 percent of those considering 4G or 5G say they will deploy their own local private wireless networks.

Nokia believes as many as 14 million base stations could theoretically be deployed in support of those local area networks. It is not yet clear how much 4G or 5G private wireless could benefit public network service providers, but such LANs obviously will be revenue for suppliers of the infrastructure. 

source: SNS

Some have predicted sales in low single-digit billions by about 2023. Earlier forecasts were undoubtedly too optimistic, as tends to be the case for new platforms. Others believe sales of 4G and 5G private networking infrastructure could eventually near $10 billion annually. That seems quite optimistic. 

source: Mobile Experts

Bangladesh Bans Zero Rating

Bangladesh has banned zero rating of mobile internet usage, making the Facebook-sponsored Free Basics service illegal. 

The decision shows how convoluted communications policy sometimes can be. In order to “protect competition,” the decision means users cannot use a selected offering of internet apps without buying a data plan. 

 That would obviously lead to higher internet usage for those apps, and many believe it stimulates demand for mobile data plans in general. 

 India has been the key instance of such bans in the recent past, citing network neutrality principles often said to be based on “treating every bit the same” or not allowing any apps or services to feature higher-quality mechanisms such as packet shaping or allowing usage of some apps without the usage counting against a data cap. 

Whatever the stated reasons, banning zero rating or Free Basics obviously takes away a consumer value for low-income citizens, whatever the other claimed benefits.

NTT Docomo on 6G

Though we are very very early in the development cycle, 6G almost certainly will feature higher speeds, lower latency, lower energy consumption, widespread embedded use of artificial intelligence and essentially will solve issues that arise during 5G deployment and experience (use cases, apps and technology). 

Advancements in some areas might not be as extensive as in the past, as we are close to physical limits in terms of latency (unless one wishes to consider the concept of negative latency, more a case of anticipating needs before they happen) and modulation complexity, for example. 

NTT Docomo also believes the radio access technology will be a key focus, as well as 

source: NTT Docomo

New ways to dynamically manage interference might be important, as small cells become a basic network building block, requiring more intensive interference management. As has become common, 6G might also incorporate use of other networks (satellite, high altitude pseudo satellite networks, local area networks). 

As 5G has begun the use of millimeter wave frequencies, 6G will undoubtedly extend use of frequencies up towards 300 GHz. The trickiness of using such frequencies is why artificial intelligence will be foundational. Using AI makes possible smarter antennas, automated and dynamic interference control and other expected or possible capabilities such as dynamically using any available resource (spectrum, radio resources) or modifying performance (power levels, for example) as needed to maintain network performance or user experience. 

5G Private Networking Will be a Thing; a Big Thing by 2036

“Do it yourself” always has been a foundational part of networking. And that will be the case for 5G as well, analysts at ABI Research predict. About halfway into the first half decade of 6G, a time when public 5G will be 15 years old, spending on private 5G network infrastructure might approach that of 5G spending on public networks, ABI suggests. 

source: ABI Research

That forecast assumes that private 5G use cases in a wide variety of settings outside factories have proven themselves in many instances where private 5G networks are deemed more useful than advanced Wi-Fi or some other connectivity method. 

As computer networking gear is a different market from connectivity services; as Wi-Fi and local area networks are distinct from public network communications, so too are markets for 5G infrastructure and telecommunications services distinct. 

Whether private 5G helps or harms public network revenues is not yet clear. Private 5G will provide a boost to suppliers of 5G infrastructure, no doubt.

IBM, Verizon Team for Edge Computing, Including Enterprise Private Edge

A new collaboration between Verizon Business and IBM illustrates the way 5G, multi-cloud support, edge computing, artificial intelligence, internet of things, “Industry 4.0,”  private networking are intrinsically related. 

The companies plan to combine Verizon’s 5G and Multi-access Edge Compute (MEC) capabilities, IoT devices and sensors at the edge, and IBM’s expertise in AI, hybrid multi cloud, edge computing, asset management and connected operations. 

source: IBM

The collaboration uses Verizon’s ThingSpace IoT Platform and Critical Asset Sensor solution (CAS) plus IBM’s Maximo Monitor with IBM Watson and advanced analytics. This effort has IBM supplying the needed analytics and multi-cloud computing support; Verizon the edge devices, access network and collocation facilities. 

source: IBM

IBM and Verizon are also working on potential combined solutions for 5G and MEC-enabled use cases such as near real-time cognitive automation for the industrial environment. 

Separately, Verizon says the 5G Future Forum will release its first technical specifications in the third quarter of 2020. The 5G Future Forum is a group of 5G service providers and suppliers working to  accelerate the delivery of Multi-access Edge Computing-enabled solutions around the world.

The 5G Future Forum was established in January 2020 by América Móvil, KT Corp., Rogers, Telstra, Verizon, and Vodafone.

Indoor 5G Cells Increase Electromagnetic Signal Levels, But Arguably Not Much

Though much public attention is focused on radio frequency emissions from cell towers, new small cells using 5G radios for indoor coverage add a new wrinkle.

Some tests show that adding indoor 5G small cells add to indoor wireless emissions, the subject of a new white paper by iBwave. 

Compliance distance, in centimeters, increases possibly three times the level of existing indoor systems. For most people, that arguably is a non-issue, as a 5G small cell, plus Wi-Fi, requires users to remain about 1.76 meters from the radios (Russia) or 18.15 cm (about two-tenths of a meter) in the United States. 

source: iBwave

Rakuten Mobile Americas Talks About Open RAN

Samsung Outlines Some Key 6G Characteristics

Everything seems to happen faster these days, and that applies to standards work leading to mobile net-generation networks. As Samsung notes, though a new mobile platform is commercialized about every decade, the time it takes to create a standard is shrinking.  

source: Samsung

Where 3G standards work took about 15 years to finish the technical standards, 4G took about 12 years. 5G standards were completed in about eight years, and Samsung believes 6G likewise will take no longer than eight years.

As performance of the communications network continues to increase, there will likely be more emphasis on issues such as device battery life and computational power. Ignoring the issue of applications for the moment, every mobile generation has brought at least an order of magnitude more network performance (speeds or capacity). 

“While 5G was designed to achieve 20 Gbps peak data rate, in 6G, we aim to provide the peak data rate of 1,000 Gbps and a user experienced data rate of 1 Gbps,” says Samsung. 

Also, each generation tends to feature greater spectral efficiency as well. “We can aim to have two times higher spectral efficiency than 5G,” says Samsung. 

“Performance targets include air latency less than 100 microseconds, end-to-end latency less than one millisecond, and extremely low delay jitter in the order of microseconds. With these requirements satisfied, the user experienced latency can be less than 10 ms, says Samsung. 

And though artificial intelligence often seems abstract in the context of the communications business,  Samsung argues that AI will need to be embedded in all system components in 6G networks. 

“it is inevitable that mobile communications will utilize the terahertz (THz) bands (i.e., 0.1-10 THz,” Samsung also says

New 3GPP Release 16 Will Cut Backhaul Costs

By some estimates, 5G backhaul, assuming that is the only backhaul option, could cost mobile operators about $130 billion. So the new integrated access and backhaul portion of the 3GPP Release 16 standard will help by allowing cell sites to use millimeter wave spectrum (or any other mobile spectrum) for backhaul, obviating the need to pull new optical fiber links in every instance. 

IAB supports multiplexing access and backhaul in the time, frequency and/or space domains, with theoretical bandwidth depending on link distance. About 10 Gbps is possible for backhaul at distances of 100 kilometers to 500 kilometers. Up to 100 Gbps is possible for links of less than 20 km. For connections of less than 10 km, as much as 1 Tbps is conceivable. 

source: 5G Americas

Loon Goes Commercial in Kenya

CBRS Auctions to Begin July 23, 2020

Some 271 firms have been certified as eligible to bid in Auction 105, offering 22,631 Priority Access Licenses in the 3550-3650 MHz portion of the 3.5 GHz band. The bidding for mid-band spectrum is scheduled to begin on July 23, 2020. 

The Citizens Broadband Radio Service features spectrum sharing, allowing new commercial users best effort or licensed access to spectrum that is licensed for use by government entities. When licensed users are not using the CBRS spectrum, others may use it on a best effort basis, without a license, or can apply for licensed access with guaranteed access instead. That is the purpose of Auction 105. 

A recent test by RootMetrics found Verizon used unlicensed CBRS spectrum in 17 or 33 metro areas tested from the beginning of the year.

source: RootMetrics

In advance of the auctions, Verizon has begun using unlicensed, best-effort CBRS spectrum to support its mobile network operations, RootMetrics data shows. Verizon is expected to bid for CBRS licenses. It might also continue to use unlicensed CBRS spectrum in areas where it does not win licenses, though. 

Though other mobile operators also are expected to bid for CBRS licenses, virtually all seem poised to make use of unlicensed spectrum in a variety of ways, including spectrum aggregation that allows networks to use Wi-Fi or other unlicensed spectrum in tandem with licensed assets, to support 4G and 5G networks. 

That does not mean an end to reliance on use of licensed spectrum, but is a significant change, as unlicensed spectrum now is viewed as a basic part of bandwidth strategy, including the more-established offload to Wi-Fi approach.