Yes, 5G is overhyped. Virtually all new important technologies are overhyped, at some point. But 5G will be similar to earlier digital generations in some ways, novel and possibly transformational in other ways.
The continuities are many. Adoption will occur in a range resembling earlier digital generations, replacing 4G sometime after five years of commercial promotion. New use cases will emerge, as every mobile generation has had a different set of lead apps and end-user values.
The first digital generation (2G) brought text messaging. 3G brought mobile internet and mobile email. 4G brought mobile video. The 5G era is likely to produce similar distinctive use cases not possible on earlier platforms.
But 5G might also be transformational in some ways. The 3G and 4G eras saw mobile devices become the most-used consumer computing platform, changing consumer app opportunities and business models.
Some of us believe 5G will be the first platform where incremental new use cases and revenue are likely to develop from enterprise applications, not consumer apps or use cases. Not since the first generation has that been true.
But 5G should be the first mobile generation where virtually all the expected enterprise new use cases will involve machines communicating with machines, not people communicating with people or people communicating with machines. That is not hype, but a shift of the primary purpose of much of mobile and wireless communications.
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