Juniper Research believes mobile operators can earn as much as $120 billion by 2024 from new value-added services. That will be important if compound annual growth rates for mobile operators globally average about -3.3 percent.
Juniper seems much more optimistic than I am about application-to-person messaging and other proposed new revenue sources. I still would argue that video entertainment and fixed wireless are the consumer sources with the biggest potential revenue impact, while IoT apps offer the biggest upside in the enterprise customer segment. Fixed wireless might also be key in the small business segment.
If total mobile operator revenue in 2018 was about $1.1 trillion, then a negative CAGR of 3.3 percent results in the need to generate about $106 billion in new revenue between 2019 and 2024, just to stay even, and without any inflation adjustments.
So Juniper Research’s estimate is just about what will be needed to avoid negative top line results.
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