Most U.S. Consumers Might Buy Advanced LTE, Not 5G, Early On

For most consumer users, the primary benefit of 5G deployment is going to be that 4G gets more attractive. Very few consumer users will benefit from the ultra-low-latency features of standards-based 5G, and while the headline speeds for mobile 5G will have the same marketing value as gigabit fixed network internet access, virtually no consumer apps require that much speed.

As a practical matter, in 2019, most consumers will have to replace handsets to take advantage of several advancements in 4G performance, or buy new devices capable of 5G, or get devices that support all the changes.

On AT&T’s network, for example, several paths to better performance are coming: Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS), licensed assisted access for LTE (LTE-LAA), 5G New Radio and 5G Evolution (LTE-Advanced).

source: Android Authority

Some of those advances actually help 4G run faster (up to 400 Mbps), and for many, if not most consumers, that will be the logical choice, if new devices must be purchased. The reason is greater handset choice and lower prices, as innovations such as “5G Evolution” are really extensions of 4G, as is LTE-LAA.

CBRS initially will run LTE protocols, but likely will require a 5G-capable device. However, if AT&T uses CBRS only to support its fixed wireless service, then the “device” initially will be a stand-alone internet access device, not a phone.

5G-NR uses the full 5G air interface and also requires new 5G-capable devices.

In principle, every facilities-based mobile service provider has access to those same tools, though a particular strategy might not require use of all of them. T-Mobile US now believes it can rely on its lower-band and mid-band spectrum rather than use millimeter waves to the same extent as Verizon and AT&T, for example.

The point is that in the interim period between advanced 4G and early 5G, consumers will have to make new handset choices under conditions where choice might be greater for advanced 4G than for 5G devices, and where the actual obtainable benefits for 5G are quite unclear.

That will make upgrade choices harder than in the transition from 3G to 4G. If you can recall, many who pondered upgrades to 4G in the early going did buy pucks or dongles useful only for internet access, and used because 4G access speeds were significantly faster than 3G. Only later were 4G phones purchased.

In the case of 4G and 5G, 4G speeds are increasing so significantly that 5G will offer few actual advantages, in terms of usable bandwidth. So decisions might be based on other elements of service.

In some cases, price plans and usage allowances for 5G fixed service might encourage some to weigh a shift from a cabled network to a wireless network for access. In perhaps a greater number of cases, users might upgrade to an advanced 4G service first, then wait a couple to a few years to upgrade to standards-based 5G.

But we might find that most consumers are mostly content to rely on advanced 4G for quite some time. If today’s “typical” LTE access speed ranges between 11 Mbps to 14 Mbps, then typical LTE-A might range between 30 Mbps and 40 Mbps.

For any single phone, that is likely to be enough to handle any application a typical person wants to use.