Mobile adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa reached 44 percent in 2017. So a casual observer might argue the market has lots of room to grow. But adoption rates have slowed recently, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for the next five years around half the level recorded over the preceding five years, according to the GSMA.
Given global average adoption rates of 66 percent, Sub-Saharan Africa has more room to grow. But demography is an issue. About 40 percent of the region’s population is below the age of 16.
That makes a difference in addressable population. Compare Sub-Saharan Africa with East Asia and Southeast Asia, where more people are older than 14.
So adoption rates in Sub-Saharan Africa by people older than 16 is perhaps 87 percent.
So the subscriber base will grow at a CAGR of 4.8 percent between 2017 and 2022, GSMA predicts.
But that is a deceleration from the double-digit annual growth rates seen in the first half of the decade.
As a result, penetration rates will see only modest increases from current levels, GSMA says. The penetration rate is forecast to reach 50 percent by the end of 2023, and 52 percent by 2025.
No comments:
Post a Comment