Is spectrum sharing essential for Internet of Things success? Yes, argues Michael Mandel, Progressive Policy Institute chief economic strategist and a senior fellow at Wharton’s Mack Institute for Innovation Management.
To be sure, machine-to-machine communications supporting the Internet of Things will represent a small share of total mobile traffic in 2020.
But by 2030, IoT-related M2M could amount to 35 percent to 47 percent of mobile data traffic, says Michael Mandel, Progressive Policy Institute chief economic strategist and a senior fellow at Wharton’s Mack Institute for Innovation Management.
If so, by 2030, more than 1900 MHz of spectrum in the sub-mmW bands (three times the current availability) and at least 1.2 million cell sites (four times the current level) will be necessary, Mandel argues.
That suggests the capacity of mobile broadband networks will have to increase by a factor of 30 times to 40 times between 2015 and 2030 in order to support large productivity gains in the physical industries.
Achieving a 40 times increase would require faster growth in one or more of these components. But no matter what the exact numbers, the key questions include the business case to build and upgrade at least 1.2 million cell sites nationally.
This would require 60,000 new cell sites a year, while maintaining and refitting 20,000 older sites each year.
Also, this forecast assumes available spectrum--excluding the millimeter bands--can grow at seven percent per year. Without spectrum sharing, that would seem an impossible task.
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