AT&T to Support Fullscreen OTT Video Service

Fullscreen, a new streaming video service, is scheduled to launch in the U.S. market on April 26, 2016, including distribution support from AT&T, which apparently hopes the youth-oriented brand will appeal to its mobile customers.

That is in addition to what AT&T is expected to do with its DirecTV assets.

DirecTV Now will offer a “range of content packages, including much of what is available from DirecTV today, on-demand and live programming from many networks, plus premium add-on options,” AT&T has said.

DirecTV Now  will be available on wired or wireless connections.

DirecTV Mobile, as its name suggests, will be a “mobile-first” offering featuring premium video and “made-for-digital content” on smartphone, accessed on an over the top basis.

All those developments also have implications for any part of the video entertainment ecosystem, including TV display suppliers. Mobile and tablet viewing is climbing, while TV set viewing and PC viewing are declining.

source: Nielsen

In times past, TV manufacturers were loathe to eliminate TV tuners from their TV sets, as that would imply the screens were “dumb monitors.” That argument should sound familiar to telecom industry executives.

There are some obvious arguments in favor of “dumb monitors,” however. Any consumer buying entertainment video service from a cable TV company, telco, satellite provider or Internet service provider is forced to use a decoder supplied by the service provider, making the TV’s own tuner superfluous.

And since, in many markets, more than 90 percent of TV consumers actually buy a service from a linear video provider, the TV tuner provides no value. It simply is not used.

source: TV by the Numbers

Even if the fundamental difference between a computer monitor and a TV is the presence of the tuner and some differences in ports and audio output,  TV manufacturers in the past have resisted selling the equivalent of monitors.

Vizio, though, is breaking with past convention, building and selling tunerless TVs for some of its sets, especially the 4K big screen models. Consumers who buy linear TV service will lose zero functionality.

In fact, the only consumers not well served by such a device are those who watch over the air TV broadcasts, and do not buy linear video service.

For Vizio, eliminating tuners allows the company to shave cost from their TVs, while allowing perhaps 90 percent of buyers to use the displays with no loss of functionality.

Vizio is the first TV set manufacturer to finally acknowledge that built-in tuners are superfluous for most potential buyers.

Reliance Communications Buys Wi-Fi Offload from Ozone

India-based Wi-Fi network operator Ozone Networks will offer Wi-Fi offload services to Reliance Communications, using the Ericsson “Small Cell as a Service” managed service capability.

Ericsson says it already has a significant managed services business supporting Indian mobile operators.

Wi-Fi offload to fixed networks obviously has business model impact. It functionally reduces need for mobile operator spectrum resources, and therefore affects the timing and capital intensity of tower investments.

For mobile virtual network operators, Wi-Fi offload of mobile traffic also reduces the amount of spending on leased capacity from network owners. Also, power is supplied by a third party, as well as the actual Internet access connection and backhaul.

source: GreenPacket

source: GreenPacket  

Consider that tower investments are amortized over eight to 10 year periods, while Wi-Fi is amortized over two to three years. Then there is the additional cost of spectrum licenses.

In modeling, GreenPacket estimates Wi-Fi offload reduces operating expense by about 16 percent.

source: Cisco

Carrier grade Wi-Fi also is on the agenda, as service providers want greater quality assurance for their voice and video services when used or viewed over Wi-Fi connections.

How Long Before 600-MHz Actually is Commercially Deployed for Mobile?

You could get a spirited debate about whether 600-MHz or 28-GHz spectrum will be first to be commercially deployed to support 5G mobile networks. The issue is that even after 600-MHz former TV spectrum is cleared and re-auctioned, years are likely to pass before the spectrum actually is physically cleared for use.

Separately, though some might question the viability of 28-GHz spectrum to support 5G, some of that spectrum already is commercially available for use by Verizon, for example.

Some will recall that several competitive local exchange carriers attempted to use 28 GHZ for point to point trunking and business access services around the turn of the century.

That band was, and remains, challenging, as signal attenuation is high, even when other atmospheric conditions (rain and fog, for example) do not interfere. But 15 years of Moore’s Law, plus use of small cell architectures, and the development of local distribution methods such as Wi-Fi, mean the feasibility of commercial use is substantially different.

In some instances, signal attenuation is less an issue, since deployment might be only for short distances. In all cases, affordable complex signal processing means signals can be recovered where that would not have possible in the past.

But signal blockage is a challenge, since millimeter wave signals are mostly line of sight, and are blocked by walls, people and other objects such as furniture. That likely means dense in-building networks (one radio in each office, for example).

U.K. Allows IoT in 55 MHz to 68 MHz, 70.5 MHz to 71.5 MHz, 80 MHz to 81.5 MHz

Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulatory body, has approved use of spectrum within the 55-68 MHz, 70.5-71.5 MHz and 80.0-81.5 MHz bands for Internet of Things (IoT) services and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) applications.

Ofcom’s objective since 2015 has been to free up 10 MHz of capacity for IoT applications, at frequencies frequencies with excellent propagation characteristics, allowing lower-cost device operation and lower capital investment in networks.

Asian Nations lead in Peak Rates for Consumer Internet Access

Of the 10 nations globally with the highest peak rates for consumer Internet access, eight are in Asia, according to Akamai. In some of those countries, Akamai's server network arguably plays a key factor.

On the other hand, many of the nations in the top-10 for peak consumer access rates also have well-developed fixed network fiber to home deployments.

source: Akamai

Comcast and Liberty Global to Bid for 600-MHz Spectrum

Some 104 entities have filed full or partial applications to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission indicating the firms have intention to bid in the forward auction of 600-MHz spectrum to be held this year.

Verizon, AT&T, Dish Network, T-Mobile US, Comcast and Liberty Global are among the entities who will be in position to bid. That list also tells one much about the future direction of U.S. mobile markets, as the list is lead not only by the largest U.S. mobile firms but includes the two largest U.S. cable TV firms (assuming the merger of Charter Communications and Time Warner Cable is approved).

Much is unclear, including the amount of spectrum that might eventually be available to acquire. The reason is that the two-state auction requires TV broadcaster willingness to sell spectrum licenses, and until that auction is completed nobody will know the amount of spectrum assets to be auctioned.

But estimates of 84 MHz up to about 100 MHz have been suggested as the amount of spectrum to be sold.

source: Hogan Lovells

T-Mobile US is expected to be a big winner in the reserve auction, which sets aside some spectrum for bidders who do not own much lower-frequency spectrum. The actual amount of the set-aside will hinge on the total amount of available spectrum.

AT&T and Verizon will not be able to bid for the set-aside spectrum, which could be as much as 30 Mhz, or little as 10 MHz, in areas where they have more than 45 MHz of lower-band spectrum.

Which Costs Less: Adding New Spectrum or Using Small Cells?

The conventional wisdom is that, given a choice between adding new spectrum or adding more cell sites, a typical mobile service provider will spend less money acquiring spectrum than subdividing macrocell sites to increase density.

The new wrinkle is how overlaying small cells compares to the cost of buying new spectrum assets. Verizon has recently been arguing it will be cheaper, in many instances, to increase network density rather than buy new spectrum.

source: Mindspeed Technologies  

That would reverse conventional rules of thumb about the relative ways of adding capacity, where new spectrum typically costs less than redesigning a network for greater density, assuming the other alternatives (better air interfaces and modulation) are not immediately available.

New spectrum can take the form of buying new spectrum, or redeploying existing spectrum, as when older networks are decommissioned.

The tradeoffs are not easy to understand, as each particular scenario might depend on how well the new frequencies map with the existing network of cell sites. Buying spectrum might be more affordable, when it is possible.

But many would argue that, historically, most of the increase in mobile capacity has come from deploying more-dense networks. That works because using smaller cells allows intensive spectrum re-use.

What is not so clear is the cost of adding capacity using small cells, or buying new spectrum. It might well be the case that such choices are not possible, at the points in time when capacity must be added.

When that happens, the relative cost difference might not matter, as there is no practical alternative to sub-dividing existing macrocells.

How Far Can T-Mobile US Push its Strategy?

It always has been clear that T-Mobile US could take market share if it was willing to sacrifice profit margins and average revenue per account. It has done so.

source: Business Insider

source: Jackdaw Research

As a stand-alone company, the T-Mobile US challenge is a race to gain new accounts, even at lower ARPU, as fast as possible, while containing churn. That way, total revenue can grow, even if ARPU is challenged.

The other variable is whether the lower-ARPU trend can be arrested. There is some evidence that is happening, though the industry backdrop is that ARPU is dropping for all carriers as the competitive environment remains challenging.

source: Strategy Analytics

The other important trend is that T-Mobile US total revenue per account, including both recurring services revenue and installment payments for devices, has been improving.

source: Techpinions

The issue now is how far the present strategy can go.

source: Strategy Analytics

What seems clear is that the T-Mobile US assault has devastated other U.S. mobile virtual network operator market share, whatever gains T-Mobile US has made at the expense of Verizon, AT&T or Sprint.

Singapore Moves Towards Four-Operator Mobile Market

Competition is not generally considered to be a particular problem in Singapore’s Internet access or mobile businesses. Nevertheless, Singapore wants more, as regulators plan to license spectrum enabling a fourth mobile operator, reserving 60 MHz of planned new spectrum--out of a total of 225 MHz--exclusively for a new entrant into the market.

Singapore’s  Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) plans to auction spectrum in the 700 MHz band, 900 MHz, 2.3 GHz and 2.5 GHz bands.

The indicative auction reserve price for the 700 MHz and 900 MHz bands is set at S$20 million per 5 MHz pair, while that for the 2.3 GHz and 2.5 GHz bands is set at $5 million per 5 MHz block.

The reserved spectrum, to support a new entrant, has a lower reserve price of S$40 million, representing a huge price discount. The new entrant will have access to 20 MHz in the 700-MHz range, 20 MHz in the 900-MHz range and 20 Mhz in the 2.3 GHz band, with the 900-MHz and 2.3-GHz capacity being made available first.

Singapore’s efforts to stimulate market entry by a fourth provider also has been an interest in South Korea, though those earlier efforts, in both countries, have not lead to success.

In setting aside the new spectrum for a fourth provider, IDA said it had “found no conclusive evidence that the entry of new operators led to depressed capital investments in the mobile sector.”

MyRepublic, a Singapore Internet service provider backed by French billionaire Xavier Niel and Indonesia’s Sinar Mas Group, is raising S$250 million to support its bid to become the fourth mobile provider.

Consistel, a regional wireless software provider, also plans to bid.

Incumbents Singtel, StarHub and M1 already are undertaking promotions to defend market share. MyRepublic says it will not compete on price, but perhaps few observers actually believe that will be the case.

SK Telecom to Build Nationwide LoRa Network

South Korea’s largest mobile operator, SK Telecom, will deploy a nationwide low-power wide area (LPWA) network in 2016, to support Internet of Things (IoT) services, presumably using the  LoRa platform.

That decision is, in part, a reminder of how hard it is to create a single, all-purpose network supporting every important application, optimally.

The decision also is recognition that requirements for IoT apps are likely to rely more on power efficiency than bandwidth.

Hard to Sell What Others Give Away

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India seems to be signaling that it could take another look at regulation of over the top voice and messaging apps, potentially seeking to apply at least some common carrier obligations and costs on OTT apps.

If there are 3.6 billion mobile users and four billion users of messaging apps, it is obvious why many worry about the potential impact of “no incremental cost” (“free”) over the top messaging and voice on carrier revenues.

That is a reasonable concern, given the fact that revenue models for services such as Line are based on game revenues, the core messaging functionality simply being a feature.

And, as is obvious, it is tough to sell what others give away. That is why some have estimated that OTT substitutes could cannibalize 25 percent to 40 percent of carrier messaging revenues in the relatively near term, in India and elsewhere.

source: Ovum

NY Wireless Provides Open Source 5G Millimeter Wave Simulator

In an effort to speed 5G development, NYU Polytechnic’s wireless research center will provide its channel models and measurements for cellular propagation in the millimeter wave (mmW) band as free, open-source software.

The simulation will help product developers understand the behavior and capabilities of the mmW radio spectrum.

That is important. Until quite recently, it was not possible to use millimeter wave frequencies to support retail end user communications. For that reason, few professionals have any experience with millimeter wave behavior and propagation characteristics.

“We’re making all of our measurements and simulation code based on those measurements open, so anyone in the world could short circuit the many years it would take to wait for products or…make the measurements on their own,” said said NYU Wireless Director Theodore Rappaport.

Telenor India Launches Lower-Cost 4G

Price is a key issue for Internet service providers aiming to provide Internet access service to hundreds of millions of new customers in India and other markets.

In India, Telenor has unveiled 4G network mobile data packages priced at about $2.21 for use of a gigabyte, good for 28 days, or $3.29 for 2 Gb, good for 28 days.

Keep in mind that the typical monthly payment for a mobile user in India is about $2 a month.

Telenor is also offering one-day service priced at Rs 11 (U.S. 16 cents) and Rs 22 (U.S. 31 cents) offering 100MB and 250MB of 4G data respectively.

SoftBank Might Bid in 600--MHz Spectrum Auction, Not Sprint

SoftBank--not Sprint--could bid in the upcoming 600-MHz spectrum auctions, some speculate.. Oddly, SoftBank would have to create yet another new U.S. company to participate.

Sprint arguably does not need any more spectrum, though if it were financially more sound, it could make the argument it requires more low-frequency spectrum.

So why would SoftBank bid? For the same reason speculators always have: spectrum rights are valuable and can be traded or sold. That investment in spectrum licenses is what some long have believed motivated Dish Network to acquire all its Long Term Evolution spectrum.

In the past, leading U.S. cable TV operators also have invested in spectrum that never was deployed to support operating networks, and eventually was sold.


source: Barrons

Without Spectrum Sharing, IoT Will Fail, Analyst Argues

Is spectrum sharing essential for Internet of Things success? Yes, argues Michael Mandel,  Progressive Policy Institute chief economic strategist and a senior fellow at Wharton’s Mack Institute for Innovation Management.

To be sure, machine-to-machine communications supporting the Internet of Things will represent a small share of total mobile traffic in 2020.

But by 2030, IoT-related M2M could amount to 35 percent to 47 percent of mobile data traffic, says Michael Mandel,  Progressive Policy Institute chief economic strategist and a senior fellow at Wharton’s Mack Institute for Innovation Management.

If so, by 2030, more than 1900 MHz of spectrum in the sub-mmW bands (three times the current availability) and at least 1.2 million cell sites (four times the current level) will be necessary, Mandel argues.

That suggests the capacity of mobile broadband networks will have to increase by a factor of 30 times to 40 times between 2015 and 2030 in order to support large productivity gains in the physical industries.

Achieving a 40 times increase would require faster growth in one or more of these components. But no matter what the exact numbers, the key questions include the business case to build and upgrade at least 1.2 million cell sites nationally.

This would require 60,000 new cell sites a year, while maintaining and refitting 20,000 older sites each year.

Also, this forecast assumes available spectrum--excluding the millimeter bands--can grow at seven percent per year. Without spectrum sharing, that would seem an impossible task.

4G is Faster than Wi-Fi in Many Global Cities

source: Twin Prime

Consumers using third generation (3G) networks used to log on to Wi-Fi because Wi-Fi was faster than the mobile network. That no longer is true for users of 4G networks, a Twin Prime study shows.

“Many people will tell you that they prefer Wi-Fi over cellular networks because Wi-Fi is more reliable and faster than cellular; however, our data shows that this is not the case, Twin Prime says.

How Big an Opportunity for 5G to Displace Fixed Networks?

As a practical matter, standards bodies are aiming for fifth generation mobile networks providing guaranteeing 50 Mbps per device. That might have business model implications for smartphone users in a stationary location, where most consumer applications, including video, can be supported.

In “shared” settings, such as automobiles, per-user bandwidth might be reduced, if devices rely on the vehicle’s acces. If each connected device uses its own account, there might be much impact at all.

Standards bodies also are aiming for the ability to sustain connections when receiver are moving

on the ground at 500 kilometers per hour, supporting virtually all vehicular or rail system access applications, according to Adlane Fellah, WiFi360 managing director.

The 5G standards also will support venue access with support for at least 0.75 Tb of traffic in a geographic area the size of a stadium.

5G networks also will support one million or more devices per square kilometer. At such densities 5G would rival either Wi-Fi or ZigBee connectivity choices, in terms of capacity.

Network availability could be “five nines” or even more stringent (up to seven nines, perhaps).

End-to-end latency of perhaps 5 ms or less also is among the design goals.

5G networks also will support device-to-device communications, an advantage when mobile network transmitting sites actually go offline.

As always, cost will be an issue, enabling or limiting the range of use cases for the 5G network, compared to fixed networks. But 5G will be the first mobile network to have a plausible chance of substituting fully for the fixed network.

Gogo to Upgrade In-Flight Bandwidth

After criticism from customer American Airlines about access speeds, Gogo is buying more bandwidth from Intelsat and OneWeb.

Beginning in 2016, Gogo will expand its use of the Intelsat Globalized Network by purchasing additional capacity on Intelsat’s Ku-band infrastructure, a contiguous, resilient network within Intelsat’s 50 satellite system which covers 99 percent of the world’s populated regions.

In 2019, Gogo will use OneWeb capacity as well.

The initial upgrade will support as much as 250 Mbps per plane on the Intelsat EpicNG fleet.

One Web’s Low Earth Orbit satellites are expected to be the first satellites to enable high performance services at high latitudes and on polar flights.

Access to such resources is one reason why mobile interests and satellite interests frequently clash over spectrum allocation. The Gogo application, as do OneWeb applications, illustrate a few of the “niche” apps satellite is best positioned to provide.

U.S. Senate Forwards "Mobile Now" Act, Calling for Release of 255 MHz of Spectrum for Mobile Use

With the caveat that lots of bills get approved in the U.S. House of Representatives or U.S. Senate that never get acted upon,  the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation has forwarded the “Mobile Now ” act for consideration by the whole Senate.

If voted upon and approved, the bill would have to be enacted by the U.S. House of Representatives as well.

The act directs the Federal Communications Commission and National Telecommunications and Information Administration to identify and make available for commercial use 255 megahertz of new spectrum resources below the 6 GHz band, by 2020.

Frequencies between 3.1-3.5 GHz and 3.7-4.2 GHz bands are chief candidates. What is not so clear is the role of spectrum sharing, which many believe would be a “better” way to release spectrum, rather than moving existing users. The bill is non-committal on ways to clear spectrum, either by spectrum sales or spectrum sharing (with licensed users getting a percentage of commercial sharing revenue).