Stay-at-home rules seem to have sliced mobile account churn in many countries. “Real-time mobile number porting data suggesting churn reduction of 55 percent to 63 percent in France, Italy and Belgium,” note analysts at Jefferies.
Reduced churn has some clear business effects. Reduced churn (porting activity) means less revenue loss from lost customer accounts, as well as associated overhead cost. With less churn, there arguably will be less need to spend on marketing, as well. On the upside, service providers lose fewer customers and preserve that cash flow those accounts represent.
On the other hand, less churn also means less cost. That arguably also will tend to buffer the impact of lost roaming revenue and some amount of data consumption revenues.
In terms of market structure, lower churn means attacking and upstart service providers will lose momentum, as most developed countries essentially have zero-sum markets. An account cannot be gained unless taken from another service provider. Less churn means less capture of new accounts.
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