Wednesday, December 27, 2017

At Least in Developed Country Markets, Tier One Carriers Must Move up the Stack


Mobile and fixed service providers in developed countries have some problems that service providers do not. Revenue growth and total revenue are among the top problems. In developed countries, voice revenue peaked between 2000 and 2002.

Overall revenue peaked about 2008 and has generally dropped since then. It is hard to overemphasize that point. Since the invention of telephony, revenue generally has grown, every year. So the break in 2008 is highly significant (firm results, and country results, will vary, but 2000 and 2008 remain key OECD turning points).

So while not every segment has the same opportunities, the search for new revenues outside the access core now is imperative. At least in developed markets, revenue growth is going to be challenged to non-existent in the legacy access services segments.

It might well be true that some specialist segments, and small telcos and ISPs generally,  have fewer options for moving “up the stack.” But surviving tier one telecom service providers will have done so.

After 175 years, the fundamental growth drivers for developed market telecom have largely become exhausted.


Since about 2008, global value added (US$ activity) in the telecom segment has declined 10 percent, while value for information technology services and software has grown.




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