Some will remain skeptical about prospects for fixed or mobile internet access as a direct competitor to fixed network internet access. Still, such mobile substitution has been a reality in some markets for years.
There will be questions about millimeter wave propagation, and millimeter wave is expected to provide the new economics for fixed wireless, with and without 5G mobile operations.
Others might simply question whether mobile operators really can supply bandwidth at prices equivalent to fixed offers, either on a price per gigabyte basis or on a monthly cost basis.
Others believe the economics of small cells and millimeter wave will alter the realm of possibility enough to enable “mobile network” offers that do compete directly with fixed network internet access.
And, as mobile has become an effective substitute for fixed network voice, some argue mobile networks will become effective substitutes for fixed internet access as well, and very likely linear entertainment video as well.
In the third quarter of 2016, for example, AT&T lost accounts in wired voice, cable TV and fixed network internet access. CenturyLink lost accounts in two out of three categories, and Verizon had low growth or losses video and internet access. The general pattern is fixed network product maturity, virtually across the board.
Most cable TV companies added accounts, or maintained share, in video and consumer voice, while growing revenue in business services and internet access.
Against those trends, mobile is expected to be the means for telcos to take market share in both video and internet access, where they have not been able to defend against cable TV leadership in internet access services, and have made important, but relatively modest organic gains in video entertainment. AT&T’s leap to the top of market share for entertainment video was fueled by its acquisition of DirecTV.
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