Wi-Fi is, in One Sense, Already the Primary Network for Mobile Users

In some ways, it can be argued that Wi-Fi already is the “primary” access network for smartphone users, at least as measured by the consumption of data. About 80 percent of smartphone data is consumed on Wi-Fi connections, according to Mobidia.

That arguably is true even for voice communications and texting usage, about 80 percent of which also occurs when users are indoors.

To say that indoor usage is mostly defined by indoor locations does not necessarily capture “value,” however. Even if “usage” is not dominant when users are out and about, that setting might be the place where connectivity is most valuable.

That certainly historically was the great value of mobile phones. So what does it mean that most of the data, text messages or voice minutes of use happen indoors?

It is hard to say, at a time when the “primary” Wi-Fi connection virtually effortlessly switches to mobile network access whenever the user leaves an indoor location.

Cablevision Systems Corp. might be among the first service providers to find out how much value “mobility” provides, as its Freewheel service has no “mobile” backup. When out of range of Wi-Fi, the Freewheel phones simply will not work.

Craig Moffett, senior analyst at MoffettNathanson, argues that Wi-Fi will be the primary network in the future, while mobile networks are used only when users are out of range of Wi-Fi.

That is not hard to imagine. What might be harder to imagine is that a “mobile” service will get wide market share if no switch to mobile network access is possible.

It is one thing to say Wi-Fi handles most of the traffic volume. It might be another matter entirely to argue that customers will happily give up the ability to default to the mobile network.

Mobile Internet access traffic offloaded from mobile networks to Wi-Fi represented 45 percent of total mobile Internet traffic in 2013, and will grow to 52 percent of total mobile Internet access traffic by 2018, according to Cisco’s Visual Networking Index.

But some amount of share might be shifted, some think.

Jonathan Chaplin, a telecom analyst at New Street Research, does believe the more traditional “Wi-Fi first, switch to mobile” approach will work.

Wi-Fi-first mobile services offered by cable companies in the U.S. could shrink mobile service provider equity value by about 15 percent—or $68 billion—within five years after cable companies enter the mobile market.

But take note: that forecast assumes Wi-Fi first, but then a switch, automatically, to mobile access.

Nobody can yet guess what share could be possible for a Wi-Fi only service.

Dish Network Decision on Spectrum Might Take a While

It probably remains literally true that Charlie Ergen, Dish Network chairman (and soon to be CEO, again) has no firm idea of what he will do with his Long Term Evolution spectrum holdings.

On its most recent quarterly earnings call, Ergen seemed to suggest Dish Network has more time than most believe. “You have up to 2020 to meet your milestone of building I think is 70 percent of the country,” Ergen said.

In other words, Dish might miss the first deadline, which is building out facilities reaching 40 percent of the potential U.S. market, and aim for the 70 percent requirement by 2020. That would give Dish Network more time to structure either an operating role, or sell the spectrum to another operator who could use the spectrum nearly immediately.

Is Dish amenable to selling some of its spectrum--particularly the 700-MHz holdings? Yes, he says. Could he sell all the spectrum? Yes. Might Dish Network build a wholesale business? Yes. “There are probably a dozen options,” said Ergen.

“We don't have preconceived notions of what we are going to do other than ideally as we said on virtually every call we've had the last five years, our dream would be to enter the marketplace and provide meaningful competition,” said Ergen.

In Europe, Dish Network recently acquired Solaris Mobile, a Dublin-based wholesale provider of satellite backhaul to support mobile operations, as well as operate terrestrial mobile operations.

In part, wholesale backhaul is one tack Dish Network could take, building a wholesale LTE network selling capacity to third parties.

Wholesale spectrum is not an approach any of the four national service providers ever have embraced, so the value of that model is untested.

After 25 Years, Cablevision Launches its Untethered Communications Service

Cablevision Systems Corp. has launched a service it pondered launching a quarter century ago, illustrating the fact that ideas sometimes must wait for Moore’s Law to do its work.

The Freewheel Wi-Fi-only phone service is not intended to be a full substitute for mobile phone service.

“We're not chasing the cellular markets to be a mobile phone provider,” said Dolan. “That's just not what the strategy for this product is about.”

While not denying that, at some point, mobile fallback might be an added feature, Cablevision presently intends for the product to be a new type of untethered service.

And though it remains to be seen whether the current vision is the ultimate vision, Cablevision does not currently seen its Freewheel Wi-Fi- based phone service as a competitor to mobile service.

In other words, it is intended as a communications service that supports voice, messaging and Internet access anywhere a public or privately accessible Wi-Fi hotspot is available.

That includes the Cablevision fixed network service area, the United States or anywhere in the world, where the device will work, with its “home” phone number, where Wi-Fi access is available.

Access would largely be untethered--not “mobile”--at least at first, as the ability to sustain sessions, and handoff between adjacent Wi-Fi cells, will be difficult to impossible.

But Cablevision believes that will provide enduring demand, and a service that is differentiated from mobile service, perhaps in large part by making Freewheel a content consumption service.

Optimum Wi-Fi customers pass an average of more than 6 gigabytes of data per month, about three times more data than the most commonly purchased data plans from mobile providers, Cablevision executives say.

In that sense, Cablevision believe Freewheel will be the beginning of a disruptive offer.

And we should assume other products based on Wi-Fi access--inside and outside the home--are coming.

“There are products and services that will go along with that strategic position,” said Dolan. “The first of which you've just seen, which is Freewheel, but there will be others.”

“Wi-Fi is a critical part of our product strategy and one of our most important strategic assets,” said Dolan.

Will Connected Car be the First Billion-Dollar New Revenue Source for Mobile Operators?

Mobile data analyst Chetan Sharma argues that, over time, despite U.S. mobile service provider revenue growth from high speed access, Internet access will not grow fast enough to offset voice revenue losses.

Neither will device sales  or wholesale revenues grow fast enough, even in conjunction with mobile data revenue growth, to offset sharp declines in voice.

Without new sources of revenue, mobile service provider revenue therefore will shrink.

That, in a nutshell, is the strategic challenge mobile operators face. The longer-term challenge is to discover or create entirely new services and products to replace legacy products that cannot sustain revenue growth.

On that score, Sharma notes, brand new services grew revenue 92 percent, though those gains might have been garnered by application or device suppliers, not necessarily service providers.

The need for entirely-new product categories is the reason service providers are looking to home security, healthcare, insurance, automotive, enterprise mobility, advertising, security, and other product areas.

For AT&T, connected cars increasingly are important. In its connected devices segment, 62 percent of new subscriptions in the segment come from cars.

Verizon reported $585 million in 2014 connected car revenue, up 45 percent from 2013 levels. At the current run rate, connected cars will be a billion dollar business for Verizon by 2016.

AT&T reported 2.8 million connected car connections and 140,000 home security connections in 2014.

Connected car revenue clearly is among the potential new revenue sources worth “at least $1 billion in annual revenue” for any particular tier-one service provider.

That is significant because no tier-one service provider can afford to waste time on new revenue opportunities that fail to reach the “billions” revenue threshold required to “move the revenue needle.”

U.S. mobile data service profit margin trends in 2014 show why the focus on creating new revenue sources is so important.

From 2010 to 2013, U.S. mobile data pricing (per unit sold) declined by only single digits year over year.

But in the first nine months of 2014, data pricing dropped by 77 percent, according to industry analyst Chetan Sharma.

At the same time, average (mean) mobile data consumption increased to about 2 gigabytes (Gb) a month. Sharma notes it took 20 years for consumption to reach 1 Gb per month usage levels.

The increase to 2 Gb took about a year.

In addition to plunging prices (less revenue per unit sold) and higher usage (more network cost), marketing costs have grown as competition has become more intense.

Overall U.S. operating expense rose 20 percent, year over year. Income was flat while earnings grew three percent.

So was 2014 an aberration? In some ways, it has to be. Can mobile data pricing (per unit sold) continue to drop at breath-taking rates? Long term, one might argue, they simply cannot decline that precipitously, every year, though steady declines at lower rates are expected.

Some might note the other key figure is the amount of incremental new buying that happens as per-unit rates drop. Lower prices tend to cause higher consumption. As veterans of the long distance business, or undersea capacity business well understand, higher volume can compensate for lower unit prices.

Why Use LTE in Unlicensed Spectrum?

A reasonable person might wonder why mobile service providers might be interested in using Long Term Evolution in unlicensed spectrum. After all, mobile service providers already routinely offload traffic to Wi-Fi, and no special protocol is required.

Mobile service providers “do not need LTE-U to use the 5 GHz band (they can do so with Wi-Fi),” notes analyst Monica Paolini.

But there are advantages, nevertheless.

LTE-U helps because it is more efficient, offers better spectral efficiency, easier network integration, and better traffic load management.

In other words, LTE-U--also known as licensed-assisted LTE--allows mobile service providers to manage their network access operations better.

Devicescape "Coverage Continuity" Service Aimed at Mobile Operators

Devicescape’s “Coverage Continuity” allows mobile service providers to use the Devicescape Curated Virtual Network (CVN) of amenity Wi-Fi locations to keep smartphone users connected.

That is yet another example of movement--even before fifth generation mobile networks--towards managed "access any network" capabilities that connect mobile devices and users to the best available network.

That strategy, already used by mobile service providers (incumbent and attackers) is bound to become more important, in part because more phones can "mix and match" access, because there is more Wi-Fi available, because the economics of the mobile business benefit from offloading traffic to Wi-Fi and because new competitors (especially cable TV operators) plan to rely on Wi-Fi access.

Coverage Continuity also identifies and reports on locations where end users experience connectivity problems, allowing operators to more effectively prioritize network optimization investments.

Network performance analysis conducted by Devicescape at a wide range of public indoor locations across 15 different countries shows that 4G/LTE signals often degrade rapidly as devices move indoors, leaving users without service or with a lower-performing 3G signal. At the same time, amenity Wi-Fi is frequently available, offering a connection consistent with the high quality 4G/LTE signal typically available outdoors.

Coverage Continuity monitors any degradation in cellular connectivity and switches the device to CVN Wi-Fi automatically, ensuring the user’s connectivity experience does not suffer.

According to Devicescape research, in the United States,, amenity Wi-Fi is available in 99 percent of airports; 95 percent of hotels; 71 percent of stadiums/convention centers; 72 percent of museums; 68 percent of cafes/bars; and 69 percent of fast food establishments.

Globally, Wi-Fi accounted for 80 percent of mobile and tablet data consumption, compared to data consumed on the mobile networks, at 20 percent, according to a new Mobidia report.

That explains the wide gap between reported “mobile data consumption” and actual end user data consumption on their smartphones.

Globally, smartphone and tablet users used in excess of 10 GB of data in December 2014, according to Ovum, up from about seven gigabytes in January 2014. That represents a 51 percent growth rate.

Apple iOS tablet users consumed about 12 GB, while Android tablet users consumed about nine gigabytes in December 2014, Ovum says.

Apple  iOS smartphone users consumed an average of about 11 GB of data in December 2014, just ahead of Android smartphone users with 10 GB. Consumers on Long Term Evolutin networks consumed even more data.

By December 2014, 4G Android smartphone users consumed 13 GB each month, dramatically higher than the 5GB/user/month of 3G Android smartphone users that month.

“Wi-Fi has cemented its position as the dominant wireless access technology, with cellular playing a vital yet supporting role, Mobidia says, based on the results of a study conducted for Mobidia by Ovum.

"Mobile" Operators Must Become "Connectivity" Providers

“Wireless Internet access” is much more than “mobile access,” it is fair enough to note. Fixed wireless, satellite access and untethered access (Wi-Fi) are widely-used forms of Internet access beyond that used by mobile devices, connected to the mobile network.

It might also be fair to say that untethered access--which has been seen as a competitor to mobile access--might actually be emerging in precisely that way. “Cable operators, Internet giants, Wi-Fi-first startups and every cafe with a wireless router are all providers of wireless service,” Devicescape argues.

So a “wave of disruption” is coming, Devicescape argues.

Though it is reasonable to point out that Devicescape builds a business on the strength of Wi-Fi, especially the ability to create unified services out of a patchwork quilt of independent Wi-Fi hotspots, the notion that mobile service providers “must” or “should” incorporate Wi-Fi access into the overall fabric of connectivity choices is reasonable enough.

That, in fact, is assumed to be a key feature of future fifth generation mobile networks, and for simple reasons. Generally speaking, mobile network connectivity is best outdoors, less effective indoors, while Wi-Fi arguably operates best indoors, least effectively outdoors.

So mobile service providers must become “connectivity providers” using any available network resource, not “mobile access” providers, one might argue.

In part because as much as 70 percent of smartphone data is accessed using a Wi-Fi connection, mobile service providers must embrace connectivity by any available means, Devicescape argues.  

Devicescape calls that shift a move from “mobile” to “connectivity,” as users do not so much care about whether their access is provided by the mobile or the Wi-Fi networks. They only want to remain connected, at the best price, one might well argue.

That noted, Devicescape argues that 29 percent of mobile users never connect to their home Wi-Fi, while 53 percent keep Wi-Fi turned off when out and about. As a result, as much as 91 percent of public hotspot locations go unused.

Mobidia, for its part, illustrates the role played by Wi-Fi and mobile activity in 2014.


source: Mobidia

Unlicensed Spectrum, LoRa, Sigfox for M2M?

Unlicensed spectrum might play a key role supporting Internet of Things networks especially focused on industrial, agricultural, utility and environmental sensor applications.

Such applications typically require low power platforms of low cost, but able to transmit messages at reasonable distances.

So it is that the LoRa Alliance, including firms such as IBM, Cisco and Microchip Technology, as well as telecom operators Bouygues Telecom, KPN, SingTel, Proximus, Swisscom, and FastNet (Telkom South Africa), supports the use of LoRa spread-spectrum radio protocol for use in wide area networks and the Internet of Things.

LoRa (Long Range) is a low data rate, long-distance communication protocol used by Semtech Corp. to provide industrial, home and building automation networks. LoRa supports devices with a range of up to 50 kilometers. The long range means that large areas can be covered by relatively few base stations.

Just as significantly, LoRa devices are expected to operate for as long as 10 years without a battery swap.

That is part of the reason supporters believe LoRa has value for many IoT and M2M applications.

Separately, SigFox uses an ultra-narrow-band platform for machine-to-machine communications and IoT, also operating in unlicensed spectrum.

The base stations are said to operate over ranges of three to 10 kilometers in urban areas and up to 30 to 50 kilometers in rural areas.

SigFox claims to have a network providing 80 percent coverage of France and has signed up operators in the Netherlands, Spain, UK and Russia, and is working on satellite connections as well.  

The point is that, if one assumes the next big leap in mobile and untethered communications will be to support machines, not people, then unlicensed spectrum is likely to play a bigger role.

AT&T Making Big Move to Spectrum-Based Platforms

In an important strategy shift, AT&T is making a move to dramatically boost the amount of revenue it earns from spectrum-related platforms, and consequently decreasing its exposure to competition from fixed network supplier competition and revenues.

The big changes, assuming acquisitions of DirecTV, Iusacell and Nextel Mexico are approved, will be to significantly alter its customer base and revenue sources, shifting even more its revenue away from fixed network sources and towards spectrum platforms.

“Our transactions with DIRECTV and Mexican wireless companies Iusacell and Nextel Mexico will make us a very different company, said AT&T CEO, Randall Stephenson. “After we close DIRECTV, our largest revenue stream will come from business-related accounts , followed by U.S. TV and broadband, U.S. consumer mobility and then international mobility and TV.”

Consider the magnitude of the changes. In 2014, AT&T reported earning nearly 60 percent of total revenue from mobile services. AT&T meanwhile earned about a quarter of its revenue from business customers.

Consumer landline revenue was less than 20 percent of total.

Assuming AT&T’s acquisitions of Iusacell, Nextel Mexico and DirecTV are approved, AT&T will earn about 45 percent of total revenue from business customers and about 20 percent from consumer mobility services.

About 30 percent of revenue would be earned from U.S. consumer high speed access and video entertainment.

For perhaps the first time, AT&T revenue would be driven by business accounts, not consumer services.

For the first time, AT&T would emerge as a leader in the subscription video market.

Contributions from the mobility segment would not wane, but AT&T would be far less exposed to competition in the consumer mobile segment.

All of that has key implications. AT&T will reduce reliance on U.S. market revenues and consumer “communications” revenues, to a significant extent, with a bigger reliance on video entertainment.

One might argue that diversification lessens the threat AT&T faces from cable TV, T-Mobile US and Sprint, CLECs, Google Fiber and other emerging independent ISPs.

Verizon Communications to Use Unlicensed Spectrum for LTE

Verizon Communications has committed to introduce Long Term Evolution using unlicensed spectrum, even before the formal standard has been ratified.

LTE in unlicensed spectrum allows mobile service providers to bond capacity supplied by licensed and unlicensed spectrum.

Mobile service providers have numerous tools available to them to increase network capacity, ranging from actual spectrum resources to traffic offload to network architecture to improvements in air interface technology.

An at least as Verizon Communications positions the matter, the cost of acquiring new spectrum is growing, while the cost of network enhancements is dropping.

Without question, mobile service providers prefer to supply capacity by gaining the use of new spectrum, largely because that has been “an extremely cost effective means of adding capacity,” according to Tony Melone, Verizon Communications CTO.

But Moore’s Law and manufacturing volume matter. So the cost of relying on a technology-driven solution (smaller cells, better radios, antennas and modulation protocols) are going down every year, Melone also said.

That probably does not mean capacity gains are equivalent, using either “new spectrum” or “network technology” approaches. It likely remains the case that additional spectrum remains a cheaper way to gain new capacity.

But Long Term Evolution, eventually 5G, antenna technologies and interference management techniques are playing a crucial role.

“All of these technology solutions will drive improvements in bits per hertz and cost per bit,” Melone said.

The latest technique is use of LTE protocols over unlicensed spectrum. “With our key suppliers we are active in the standards process and will likely deploy a pre-standard version in the not too distant future,” said Melone.

India Spectrum Auction Begins March 4

Spectrum auctions covering a wide range of frequencies and air interfaces, set to begin March 4, 2015 have drawn eight bidders.

Aircel, Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular, Reliance Jio Infotel, Reliance Communications (RCom), Tata Teleservices, Uninor and Vodafone have announced they will bid.

The auction is a bit unusual in that it includes 2G and 3G spectrum in the 800MHz, 900MHz, 1.8GHz and 2.1GHz bands, and also puts out for rebid frequencies already used by incumbent service providers.

Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India, Idea Cellular and RCom, for example, must win back their spectrum to be able to stay in business. By some estimates, about half of all mobile revenues now are supported by spectrum that must be reacquired by Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Cellular and RCom.

Tata Teleservices, Aircel and Uninor also will try to win spectrum.

Reserve prices have been set rather high, some argue. That is a problem, in that all paid spectrum costs will be passed along to consumers.  

How Much Time Does Dish Network Have to Activate its LTE Plans?

The big gamble on mobile spectrum or mobile services being made by Dish Network might take a while to reach a final conclusion.

Dish has assembled a portfolio of about 55 MHz of spectrum to support Long Term Evolution networks, but some note it faces a 2017 deadline to get 40 percent of that spectrum activated, allowing mobile customers to buy service.

There is a catch. Dish can miss the deadline, face a penalty, but still keep its spectrum if it makes the second deadline of 70 percent coverage by 2020.

Dish might also face some legal challenges around the 25 percent discount it is receiving to buy the AWS-3 spectrum it won in the recent AWS-3 spectrum auction.

Neither AT&T nor Verizon will do anything they can avoid to enable Dish Network’s entry into the U.S. mobile market, as well. An argument can be made that new shared spectrum initiatives, new unlicensed spectrum and millimeter wave capacity will provide the additional capacity either firm might need.

Should Dish fail to activate its spectrum it loses the licenses, and the gamble fails. So AT&T and Verizon will have strong incentives to use the other traditional methods--network architecture, air interfaces and offload--to keep growing capacity.

Verizon has been thought among the possible buyers, but, as you would expect, Verizon says it is in no hurry to acquire additional spectrum, even if it remains open to “secondary market” transactions.

In fact, Verizon seems to be saying it has no need for a few, or several years, a time frame that puts Verizon past the window when Dish Network would have needed to act, one way or the other, to put that spectrum to work supporting an actual mobile business of some kind.

There are other options for Verizon. Some believe Sprint might put some of its surplus spectrum up for sale, for example. Verizon also is looking at unlicensed spectrum, and says it also would consider leasing some spectrum.

Looking only at spectrum, Dish Network now controls about as much capacity as does T-Mobile US. A network, and a retail service, it does not yet have. Whether there are other buyers is an open question. Apple, Google and Comcast are the names that come to mind.

Reliance Offers Twitter Free During Cricket World Cup, In India

Twitter is the latest application provider to provide “no incremental charge” access to its app by mobile users, in India, on the Reliance Communications network, for the duration of the Cricket World Cup.

Reliance Communications (RCom), part of the Anil Ambani-led group, is the global telecom sponsor of the ICC World Cup 2015.

Customers who do not have a Twitter account can also access cricket-related Tweets by logging on to www.rcom.co.in/cricket on their mobile phones from February 13 to March 31, 2015.

Such sponsored access is widely offered by Facebook and other application providers, all the time, as part of the Internet.org initiative.

Facebook and Reliance Communications earlier had agreed to make a bundle of apps available to Reliance customers in India.

Reliance customers in six Indian states (Tamil Nadu, Mahararashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala, and Telangana) will now have access to more than three dozen services ranging from news, maternal health, travel, local jobs, sports, communication, and local government information.

Reliance customers in India can access these services in the Internet.org Android app, at www.internet.org, from the start screen of the Opera Mini mobile web browser, and using the Android app UC Browser for Internet.org. Most of the services will be available in English, Hindi, Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam, Gujarati and Marathi.

Among the apps available are:

Aaj Tak - Read news in Hindi

AccuWeather - Get updated weather information

amarujala.com - Read news in Hindi

AP Speaks - Engage with local government

Babajob - Search for jobs

BabyCenter & MAMA - Learn about pregnancy and children

BBC News - Read news from around the world

Bing Search - Find information

Cleartrip - Check train and flight schedules & buy tickets

Daily Bhaskar - Read local news

Dictionary.com - Search for meanings of words

ESPN Cricinfo - Get cricket updates

Facebook - Communicate with friends and family

Facts for Life - Find health and hygiene information

Girl Effect - Read articles and tips for girls

HungamaPlay - Listen to music

IBNLive - Read news

iLearn - Learn from Women Entrepreneurs

India Today - Read local news

Internet Basics - Learn about the basics of the Internet

Jagran - Read local news

Jagran Josh - Get education and career information

Maalai Malar - Read news in Tamil

Maharashtra Times - Read news in Marathi

Malaria No More - Learn about malaria

manoramanews.com - Read local news

Messenger - Send messages to friends and family

NDTV - Read news

Newshunt - Read news in English

OLX - Buy and sell products and services

Reliance Astrology - Read your horoscope

Reuters Market Lite - Get farming and crop information

Socialblood - Register to donate blood

Times of India - Read news

TimesJobs - Search for jobs

Translator - Translate words and phrases

Wikipedia - Find information

wikiHow - Find information

Tigo in Colombia also is among the latest mobile service providers to join the program.